The official Round 1 of the 2024 AFL season begins on Thursday night with Carlton taking on Richmond. It’ll be the first match at the MCG this season and a massive crowd is expected to be in attendance. As always, we bring you our full match preview, best bet, and Same Game Multi!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Round 1 Preview & Betting Tips
Carlton vs Richmond
Thursday 7:30pm AEDT, March 14th, MCG
It was a tale of two halves in Carlton’s Opening Round match against the Lions. Trailing by 46 points during the second quarter as well as 31 at the main break, the Blues showed their true fighting spirit to claw their way back into the contest and eventually record an unlikely one-point win (86-85).
The majority of the key statistics from that match were almost identical between the two teams, although the Blues were the more efficient of the two inside their attacking 50. They were -13 for inside 50’s (49-62) and -9 for marks inside 50 (7-16) yet still managed to do more damage on the scoreboard. They also turned the contested possessions number around after a slow start to finish +8 in that area.
The dramatic win didn’t come without a cost however, as star midfielder and much-loved clubman Sam Docherty suffered an ACL tear which will unfortunately sideline him for the rest of the season. He joins Sam Walsh and Jacob Weitering as the key outs for the Blues.
Elsewhere, it was a nightmare start to the season for Richmond who were soundly beaten by Damien Hardwick’s Suns. After kicking the opening goal of the game in the opening minute, the Tigers conceded goal after goal and went into the main break down by 61 points. And while they showed some spirit in the third quarter where they kicked six goals to nil, the damage had already been done as they went down by 39 points (60-99).
The Tigers were smashed in pretty much every key statistical in the loss, which makes it hard to take out many positives apart from the third term. They were destroyed by 26 in the contested possession count (113-139), 82 in uncontested possession (143-225), 13 in clearances (31-44), and 20 in inside 50’s (41-61).
On the back of that result there’s sure to be a whole host of changes made at the selection table. And in good news, star trio Dustin Martin, Toby Nankervis, and Tom Lynch are all expected to be available after missing Opening Round through injury.
Match prediction: This traditional Round 1 opener has resulted in some classics over the year’s including in 2023 where it ended all square after the final siren (58-58). However, it’s tough to see this Thursday’s edition being quite as close considering what we saw from these teams in Opening Round.
Regardless of their injuries, the Blues look to be a force to be reckoned with and I think deserve to be bigger favourites than they currently are. I’ll be backing them in to cover the 15.5-point spread at Ladbrokes, but only for 1.5 units as we are still very young in the season with a tiny sample size.
Carlton -15.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Harry McKay 3+ Goals – What a confidence boost this man got last week. Kicked a clutch set shot to make it three snags in total against the Lions. He should feast on the lesser Tigers defence.
Blake Acres 20+ Disposals – 22 disposals last weekend and had 20+ in 19/23 home and away games in 2023. He should be good to reach that mark again here.
Nic Newman 20+ Disposals – Only 16 disposals last weekend but it was a relatively low disposals game across the board. He had 20+ in his 11 games prior and I like him to bounce back against easier opposition.
Jayden Short 20+ Disposals – Has a monopoly on the kick-ins at the Tigers at the moment. Took eight last weekend and nine in the official pre-season match. That should help him get to 20 comfortably here.
SGM Odds: $5.75 at BoomBet
