Round 19 concludes at Marvel Stadium with a battle of second against second last as Carlton and North Melbourne face off. Both teams will be looking to bounce back from disappointing losses and Jack Tobin has you covered with his full preview.
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2024 AFL Round 19 Preview & Betting Tips
Carlton vs North Melbourne
Sunday 4:40pm AEST, 21st July, Marvel Stadium
Carlton’s grip on second place is slipping after back to back losses against GWS and the Western Bulldogs, with results going the Blues way last week that kept them in second.
It was a game of missed opportunities for Carlton who kicked 12.14 in the 14 point loss, with reigning Coleman Medalist Charlie Curnow kicking an absurd 3.7. The Blues get a golden opportunity to bounce back against a Kangaroos outfit that is coming off a 79 point hiding at the hands of Sydney.
North Melbourne recorded -52 disposals, -27 marks, -25 inside 50’s, and remarkably had less tackles than Sydney despite their statistical dominance. The Kangaroos were lucky that Sydney kicked 20.18, in a game where the margin could have been much larger.
56.2% of Sydney’s inside 50’s were converted to scores, which doesn’t make for pretty ready coming up against one of the highest scoring teams in the competition. The Blues are the second highest scoring team in the AFL, averaging 99 points per game and have two of the top four goal kickers in the competition with Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay.
Carlton are the best clearance team in the competition and have turned that into a weapon from an attacking standpoint. The Blues are the third ranked team in the competition for scoring from stoppages (39.2 points per game), and fourth for scoring from centre bounce (13.2 points per game). When these sides met on Good Friday, Carlton scored 55 points from stoppage.
Another score source the Blues have been excellent has been scoring from turnover, where they rank second in the competition with 56.4 points per game. Carlton scored a mammoth 76 points from turnover against North Melbourne earlier this year.
Match Prediction: It’s going to be another scary afternoon for North Melbourne against one of the best sides in the competition, who will be desperate to bounce back after consecutive losses. Carlton have won four of their last five games against the Kangaroos, including a 56 point win in Round 3 this year.
The Blues have averaged 109 points per game over their last seven games, with their score of 86 last week the only score under 95 points in that time period. North Melbourne are the second lowest scoring team in the league averaging just 70 points per game, and don’t have the capacity to keep the game close against a side with a massive talent gap.
Carlton -39.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Patrick Cripps 30+ Disposals: The Carlton captain has been in outstanding touch over the last month, averaging 35 disposals per game in his last four games. Cripps has averaged 30 disposals per game across his last three games against the Roos and will be a nightmare for the young North midfield.
Sam Walsh 25+ Disposals: Sam Walsh has been a model of consistency this season, recording 25 or more disposals in ten of his thirteen games. Walsh has recorded 29 and 27 disposals in his last two games against the Kangaroos.
Harry McKay 3+ Goals: Harry McKay has feasted on the Kangaroos in recent season, with returns of 5, 4 and 4 goals in his last three goals against North Melbourne. McKay has kicked three or more goals in three of his last four games, with performances of 3, 5, 2 and 3 goals.
SGM Odds: $3.00 at BoomBet
