Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the best betting races at Canterbury, Caulfield and Ascot on Wednesday, February 21st.
We’ve taken a look at all three cards and selected the races we’re keenest to bet into, and you can find our tips and comments on each of those below.
Best Bet: Canterbury Race 8 #1 Serene Miss
Best Value: Ascot Race 5 #6 Burning Pride EW
CANTERBURY RACING TIPS
RACE 1
It’s a wide-open race to start the day at Canterbury with a competitive field of two-year-olds. I’m going to have two small plays in the race on a couple at decent odds. The first is (4) Aylmerton at $11. I’ve really liked its two trials leading into its debut here, the first being a quiet 3rd when not pressured and that was followed by a stylish win. Looks to get a nice run from barrier 4 here and should be fairly close to the speed, well weighted after the claim and expecting a decent run at good odds. (9) Royal Witness started $2.15 favourite on debut at Randwick but was very disappointing. They’re planning to be more forward today and there was a big spruik on the horse leading into that debut so at the bigger price of $8 today it might just pay to give him another chance. (1) Pindus was good on debut and the Godolphin operation is in hot-form now the carnival is upon us. Wary of both (8) Signore Fox for Snowden/McEvoy and (12) Kara’s Hope for Martin/Hyeronimus.
TIP: (4) Aylmerton EW / (9) Royal Witness EW
RACE 2
Quite like the chances of (2) Primitivo here, who resumes from a spell with one trial under the belt. This horse ran 2nd behind a smart one on debut, and followed that up with a 3rd placing in Group 3 company at his second start, when he loomed up at the 200m but didn’t see out the mile. Fresh up over 1200m here with Shinn riding for John Thompson, looks a good chance at $3.50.
TIP: (2) Primitivo
RACE 3
There’s two I’m backing early here. (2) Tangmere goes on top here after a solid win first up over 1400m at Randwick. There’s some query over that form given Kookabaa has since come out and failed, but second up in his second prep and up in distance to 1550m should suit this horse. McEvoy sticks with him and should get a very similar run to what he had first up. Locking in $4.80 early. Also backing (3) Angel’s Boy at $4.50, who comes off a moderate win t Newcastle but steps up in distance third up off a long spell, and gets a huge jockey change. Looks as if it should get an uncontested lead, which at Canterbury is a huge positive. Surprised if the winner came from outside those two and suspect they will both start significantly shorter than the current odds. Tipping Tangmere, backing both.
TIP: (2) Tangmere
RACE 5
Very competitive race and I could genuinely make a case for every runner in this race, but I’ll be having something small on (7) Legadema at $9. This horse resumed with a comfortable win at Gosford, where it led all the way. Has performed well at both second up runs previously, has won twice at this distance and the stable is flying. If it goes to the front once again here it could give a big sight at good odds. I’m most wary of (6) Dissolute fresh, with the stable firing, but as mentioned, I wouldn’t pen any runner in this race.
TIP: (7) Legadema EW
RACE 6
(1) Cyrus Rocks looks a strong chance of making it a hattrick here, after a win at Hawkesbury two starts ago followed by a win at this track and distance last start. That win took his record at this track and distance to two wins and a 2nd from five starts. Carried 59kg to victory last start so the big weight is not much of a concern. Should go straight to the front from barrier 1 and he’ll be hard to run down again. Already $8 into $4.50 and could start shorter.
TIP: (1) Cyrus Rocks
RACE 8
Very keen to back (1) Serene Miss here, who looks one of the best bets of the day at $3.60. This horse should arguably be undefeated, winning her first three starts before a luckless run at the end of last preparation. Undefeated first up, has trialled twice leading into this race (winning the most recent one of those), gets a gun run from the barrier and gets in well after the claim. It’s a fairly decent race but I think she’s a talented mare and she’ll be very hard to beat fresh here.
TIP: (1) Serene Miss (Best Bet)
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
RACE 6
This is a wide-open race for the stayers, which are typically very hard betting races. Interested in two here. Sticking with (11) Poppiholla who went ever so close for us last start at good odds. That was her second start at 2400m this prep so she’s rock-hard fit now and has her third consecutive run at this distance. She drew barrier 1 last start and was held up before launching late when she really got the opportunity to balance up. She draws barrier 4 today so hopefully she can settle one off the rail and be able to wind up early. Not sure Caulfield is her track but at $7 I have to follow my money. (4) Dreaded is another that I’m interested in. His recent racing has been very inconsistent. He tends to race flat every second run, and then bounce back. He led last start (probably not his go) and battled so hopefully with a quieter ride today he can bounce back to the form which saw him dead-head with Poppiholla for 2nd behind Eaton two starts ago. He drops 2kg from that run and if he repeats that he’ll give this a good shake at $12.
TIP: (11) Poppiholla EW / (4) Dreaded EW
RACE 7
Keen on (8) Sirius Suspect for Weir here. This horse was sound on debut when unwanted in betting, before breaking its maiden at Kilmore last start. We often see Weir give horses like this a couple of runs in the country and then bring them to town when they’re fit. Will go forward from barrier 9 which will be a good thing with the rail out 12m at Caulfield. Backing at $4.40. (7) Avapardi looks a reasonable price at $6 and we could get better on the day. Was a big effort first up at Albury when never on the track, and then came to town last start and ran 2nd to Freehearted, who has since won again. Will get back and need luck from barrier 1 but looks to have come back particularly well and should be competitive in this.
TIP: (8) Sirius Suspect / (7) Avapardi EW
RACE 8
Isn’t this a cracking race for a midweek? I’ve been a (8) Paret fan since the day he debuted and I’m sticking with him here. He comes out of a very strong race in Sydney first up when he finished last in a field of 5, pulling up with mild lameness. From that race, D’Argento (1st) is one of the leading contenders for the Guineas in Sydney, and Shumookh (2nd) has since come out and run 2nd to Alizee. Paret has since been back to the trials (where he ran 2nd to Shumookh) and was given a solid hit out. I doubt barrier 1 at Caulfield is going to be his ideal conditions, but Oliver on is a plus and hopefully he sits a touch further forward in running. I think the horse is talented, and because of those factors we’re getting a bit of a price about him with $4.80 available. (14) Over And Above is a horse I’ve got plenty of time for – I’ve backed him at both career starts so far. He was sound when winning last start and the form from the debut run has been franked with the winner coming out and winning again at Moonee Valley last Friday night. With the rail out, he should bounce straight to the front and give them all something to run down. Taking $4.80 and certainly won’t be losing if Over And Above wins. (7) Kaching ran a blinder first up in a good race but draws wide and goes from Damian Lane to Zac Spain today. Backing Paret and Over And Above.
TIP: Paret / Over And Above
ASCOT RACING TIPS
RACE 2
Not keen on taking $1.85 for (3) Dashing Affair here. She backed up a nice trial to win a maiden first up at 1100m last start, but the form out of the race has been horrible, with both 2nd and 3rd finishing down the field in their next starts. Keen to back (1) Wee Cent, who has already been $8 into $4.80. He won first up two starts ago before failing in a much stronger race than this last start, despite being fairly well backed. Back down in distance here off a freshen up, gets red-hot apprentice Brodie Kirby on board to take 3kg off, and finds a vey winnable race.
TIP: (1) Wee Cent
RACE 5
The top three in the race certainly look hard to beat but I’m having something small on (6) Burning Pride at $18/$3.75 here. This horse has had two starts back from a spell, both over 1500m, with just the one trial leading into those. Steps up to 1800m now at her third run back, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them ride more aggressively here. There’s absolutely no speed in the race and this filly led with success in her first two career starts, so now she’s fit she may find the front and prove hard to catch. Something small each way at the big odds.
TIP: (6) Burning Pride EW (Best Value)
RACE 6
(3) Friar Fox is flying. Should arguably be undefeated from four career starts. She was desperately unlucky on debut, followed that with a win, was then beaten 0.25L two starts ago, but followed that with another good win last start. She’ll get back from barrier 10 which is the only concern, but she won a reasonable race last start and looks a great chance of winning again here. The second favourite (4) Freedom By Choice didn’t have much luck first up and did go close second up last prep behind the likes of First Affair and Trap For Fools, but his second up record remains four starts for zero placings and his record at the track is three starts for no placings.
TIP: (3) Friar Fox
