A vastly improved Bulldogs team will kick things off on Sunday afternoon, as they take on a Knights team that has struggled to start the new season. With both teams sitting just one win off the bottom of the ladder, a loss here would be brutal for either team, whilst a win will propel the team into the top 8 hunt.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 7 Preview & Betting Tips
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights
Accor Stadium, Sunday 21st April, 2:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Bulldogs, for the second year in a row, were extremely impressive when heading down to Melbourne. After winning the fixture last year, the Bulldogs came into last week’s matchup with the Storm as huge 17.5-point underdogs and were never given much of a chance. This didn’t phase the Doggies, as they led 14-10 with just six minutes left in the game. A late try to Shawn Blore and conversion from Nick Meaney got the Storm home, but it showed that this year’s Dogs team is vastly improved, particularly defensively.
As for the Knights, they closed small favourites at home against the Roosters, and whilst they were impressive in making over 2000 metres and completing at 90%, they also allowed the Roosters to make over 2200 metres, whilst conceding 7 line-breaks. The real area of concern for the Knights was their inability to slow down the back 5 of the Roosters, who ran for over 1000 metres between them. With the Bulldogs back 5 looking great last week, the Knights must shut them down if they are going to win this week.
Match Preview
These teams met twice last year, and boy was it harsh viewing for Bulldogs fans. In round 18 at home, the Bulldogs were put to the sword, going down 66-0. Six weeks later in Newcastle, it wasn’t much better, with the Knights spanking the Bulldogs 42-6. The Knights were favourites in both games, closing as 2.5-point favourites on the road, before closing 9.5-point favourites at home six weeks later. The total jumped from 43.5 in round 18, to 47.5 in round 24, with the over hitting in both games (although it was tight in round 24).
The market has moved swiftly towards the Bulldogs, following their tremendous effort last week against the Storm, as they moved from 3.5-point underdogs prior to last week’s games ending, to re-opening as 2.5-point underdogs, to where the game now sits at a pick em’. This seems just a little bit like an overreaction to me. Case in point, if we look at some closing lines that have involved these two teams, and a common opponent, the Melbourne Storm. In round 3, the Knights closed as a slight favourite at home against the Melbourne Storm, subsequently beating them 14-12. Just three weeks later, the Storm closed as 17.5-point favourites against the Bulldogs, and now, a week later, we see the Knights and Bulldogs at pick em’ odds. Whilst I agree with the improvement in the Bulldogs over the past few weeks, for the market to change this much in just a few short weeks, seems excessive.
As for the total, it opened 41.5 and currently sits at 41.5. It has yo-yoed between 41.5 and 42.5 all week, and if you can nab a 42.5 somewhere, I suggest taking the under. These teams both sit in the top half of the league for points allowed per game, whilst both sit in the bottom 6 sides for points scored per game. Both teams have been heavy unders teams, with the Knights (67%) and Bulldogs (83%), playing far more unders than overs. With the added chance of cold and wet conditions, I very much favour the under in this game.
Still, at pick em’ odds, I can’t not take the Knights here. My main concern is the health of Ponga, but he looked fine last week after getting needled at halftime. If he’s not fit, the bet probably loses, but at these odds I love the Knights to get the job done here.
Knights to Win
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
Under 47.5 points – Explained above. Buying a few extra points here.
G Marzhew (1+ try) – I’m hoping Marzhew plays on the left, and if he does, he should be a lock this week. The Bulldogs right side defence has conceded a whopping 68% of all tries the team has conceded this season.
B Best (1+ try) – See above. I expect the left side of the Knights to hammer the Bulldogs right edge defence all game.
SGM Odds: $10.52 at Neds
