The 2024 NRL regular season concludes this week with Round 27 beginning in Brisbane on Thursday night with the Brisbane Broncos hosting the Melbourne Storm. The Broncos were dumped out of Finals contention last week in spectacular fashion, and after featuring in the Grand Final last year, they will want to reward their loyal fans with a strong performance. The Storm will finish the year as Minor Premiers and will want to return to winning form ahead of a tilt at the Premiership.
Before You Bet is here to take a detailed look at the action ahead, with the aim of finding you a winner or two to get your weekend off to a good start.
And don't forget to head to our NRL tips page for previews of all of the NRL and NRLW matches this weekend!
NRL Round 27 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm
Suncorp Stadium – Thursday 5th September – 7:50pm (AEST)
The Broncos had everything to play for last week against the Dolphins but were handed a reality check in their 40-6 defeat by their crosstown rivals. A poor first half saw them down 24-6 at HT; they were never able to gain control, and their opponents took their chances. The second half saw them concede 3 more tries as their 2024 Finals hopes slipped away. That effort indicated that they are not up to the standard required to feature beyond this week. With just 42% possession, they completed at only 72%, made just under 1300m, and had just 2 line breaks. They were poor defensively conceding 9.2m per carry, allowing 602 PCM’s, conceding 9 line breaks and missing 32 tackles. The knives are already out too, and it makes for a long off-season ahead.
The Storm were also defeated but after taking the opportunity to rest 11 players for their game against the Cowboys in Townsville, they can be pleased with the 38-30 result. They gave their opponents a scare and the incoming players were not backing down from the challenge presented to them. Trailing 18-16 at HT and after several lead changes throughout the match, there was a genuine sense that they could cause an upset. Unfortunately, it wasn’t to be. The ‘next man up’ mentality was evident; they had a greater share of possession (53%), averaged 9.7m per carry, created 8 line breaks and missed just 16 tackles. It is a testament to the depth and mindset of this club.
Verdict
It is difficult to see any other outcome than the Storm winning this contest. They will want to finish the season off on a positive and carry that momentum into Week 1 of the Finals. Coach Bellamy had the chance to rest some players again but opted against it, knowing the benefit of what confidence can do to a team. This has seen them listed as short favourites ($4.80 vs $1.18), with a vastly different match expected to the Round 5 contest where the Storm prevailed 34-32.
The Broncos have lost their attacking spark, with Staggs and Haas further omissions. The Storm also enjoy a positive record over the Broncos, winning 15 of the past 16 matches played; this has seen them have a 77% strike rate at this ground also (vs Broncos 58%). The hardest decision will rest on finding value in the visitors. The line (16.5) appears to be the preferred option. Not only do the Storm have a superior attack (22pg vs 27ppg) but they will have an enhanced ability to shut down their opponents’ attacking options with resolute defence and have done so all season (24ppg vs 19ppg). With the average margin of victory in the past 5 matches between these two sides sitting at 18.8 points, it is likely that the Storm will be able to cover this and finally put the Broncos out of their misery.
Storm -16.5
$1.95 (2 units)
Same Game Multi
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Storm 13+: As already outlined above, I'm expecting a comfortable win for the Storm as they head into the Finals
Faalogo 2+ tries: Faalogo has proved electric in 13 games, scoring 8 tries. His move to fullback to cover Papenhuyzen will see him excel. He has speed to burn and will want to make a claim for a regular starting position.
Warbrick to score: Warbrick is solid. He has scored 10 times this season in 20 games and will want to add to his tally with unfamiliar edge players for the Broncos.
Combined Odds: $9.50 at Boombet
