There are just two NRL games on Saturday and the second one will take place in Brisbane with the Broncos hosting the Dragons. Few would’ve predicted that the Dragons would be sitting higher than the Broncos at this stage of the season but that is the predicament fans are faced with. The Broncos will not want to give up their home ground advantage easily, but the Dragons will be out to spoil the party. Anything can happen in this match and Before You Bet is here to help guide you along the way with a comprehensive preview of the NRL action ahead.
2024 NRL Round 19 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs St George-Illawarra Dragons
Suncorp Stadium – Saturday 13th July – 7:35pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Broncos hosted the Panthers last week and were dealt a reality check in their 14-6 loss. Despite trying hard and executing well for majority of the contest, they were outplayed by a superior opponent who was still down on key players (as were the Broncos is some respects). Leading 6-4 at HT, they couldn’t build on their tally in the second half; rather, they were pulled apart by a quality opponent with relentless pressure and precise execution. Perhaps it was a better effort than was suggested in the NRL Power Rankings; with just 45% possession, they completed at 77% and averaged 9.1m per carry. Their issues came defensive as they missed 45 tackles, conceded 9.2m per carry and allowed 5 line breaks. They must be better in this area if they want to be competitive with the leading teams in the competition.
The Dragons started with intent against the Roosters but, for the second time this year against them, were out played and lost by a convincing margin. In a tight and physical first half, they trailed 14-6. Unfortunately, when their opponents kicked into another gear in the second half, they were unable to match them, eventually defeated 42-12. This result was amid an effort which saw them have an equal share of possession and have a superior completion rate (87%). They were let down in other areas; they averaged just 7.6m per carry, made significantly fewer PCM’s, and missed 50 tackles. Still, they are only outside the Top 8 on points difference and will be out to make a statement here in challenging circumstances.
Match Prediction
On the home ground advantage alone, the Broncos are justified favourites for this contest ($1.53 vs $2.50); they have a 59% winning record here (vs Dragons 37%) and the home team has won the past 4 meetings between these two sides. However, the result isn’t as clear-cut as that statistic would suggest. For starters, the Dragons have won 6 out of the past 8 against the Broncos. The home side is also missing a host of quality players, mainly to Origin duty; while the Dragons lose two of their strike attacking weapons, it is an opportunity for others to make a name for themselves. The season averages are also closer than most would expect. The Broncos have the edge in both but only slightly; they average 22ppg in attack compared to the Dragons 20ppg and concede 21ppg while the Dragons allow 24ppg.
In the games that the Dragons have performed well in (and won) in 2024, defence has been a backbone of their play. This game should be no different if they are aiming for success. They tried hard to establish this against the Roosters but ultimately fell short against a better opponent. The Broncos are vulnerable. They are not the same team which made the Grand Final in 2023 and the loss of certain individuals means they will be lacking in on-field experience. In a Head-to-Head (tipping selection), there would be a slight lean towards the Dragons…but only just.
In terms of an investment which should give you the safest and greatest option at finding a return, bank on either team winning this match by 10 or less points. Despite the average winning margin in their past 5 games sitting at 15.6 points, each team has shown with their averages this year that they display a similar level on either side of the ball.
Either Team by Under 10.5 Points
$2 (2.5 Units)
Prop Bet
Of the past 5 matches between these two sides, the average total is 54 points. While it will likely be close, it should also be high scoring. You may also want to combine the two for greater value.
TIP: Total Points Over 49.5 Points ($1.90 at TradieBET) 1 Unit
