Round 3 in the 2024 AFL season kicks off on Thursday night with a grand final rematch at the Gabba between the Brisbane Lions and the Collingwood Magpies. Both clubs are winless heading into the clash, which only adds further intrigue to what might unfold. We bring you our full match preview, best bet, and Same Game Multi for free below!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Round 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane vs Collingwood
Thursday 7:30pm AEDT, March 28th, Gabba
Coming off an early Round 2 bye, Brisbane have had plenty of time to ponder their disappointing start to the 2024 season. They’ve coughed up healthy leads in both of their fixtures to date, and ultimately succumbed to defeat against the Blues in Opening Round and the Dockers in Round 1.
The Lions have been soundly beaten in the midfield so far this season, losing both the contested and uncontested disposal counts on each occasion. They were without 2x Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale against the Dockers, which certainly didn’t help their cause. Still, a number of Dockers were able to get off the chain, headlined by Caleb Serong who amassed 46 disposals – a new Fremantle club record.
The good news for the Lions is that Neale has recovered from his minor hamstring injury and will be lining up on Thursday night. The horrible news is that new recruit Tom Doedee has suffered a devastating tear to his ACL, just as he was tipped to make a potential club debut.
Meanwhile, Collingwood have begun their premiership defence with an 0-3 record, which is their worst start to a season since 1999. They’ve looked severely hungover early doors with losses to the Giants, Swans, and most recently the Saints.
It’s tough to say which defeat has been the most disappointing/alarming, as all three have been as a result of uncharacteristic performances when compared to the Craig McRae Magpies of 2022 and 2023.
The Magpies’ defence has failed to hold up as they’ve conceded scores of 114, 102, and 94 at an average of 103.3 per game, which is exactly 30 points higher than their average score against in 2023 (73.3). For measure, only the Bombers (107), Kangaroos (111.5), and Eagles (114) are currently conceding more score per game this season.
Match prediction: Needless to say, neither of these teams would be at all pleased with how they’ve begun the season, particularly after the heights they reached in 2023. However, there’s certainly more alarm bells ringing in the Collingwood camp compared to the Brisbane camp on the back of what we’ve seen to date.
Yes, the Lions are 0-2 but they’ve been in winning positions in both games which you can’t necessarily say about the Magpies. On top of that, they’ve got a relatively healthy list and are coming off a full week’s rest where they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for this contest.
The Lions have also won four straight against the Magpies at the Gabba as well as six straight in home and away games overall. They’ve piled on scores of 86, 124, 116, 98, and 148 in their last five games in this matchup at an average of 114.4 per game. And considering how poor the Magpies defence has been so far in 2024, I expect this potent Lions outfit to cash in once again, leading to the total points sailing over what looks to be a modest line.
Over 164.5 Points
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Joe Daniher 3+ Goals – Big Joe will be licking his lips knowing he’s kicked 3+ goals in six of his last seven games against the Magpies. On top of that, the Magpies talls have been conceding goals for fun so far this season.
Patrick Lipinski 15+ Disposals – Always managed to find a way to get to at least 15 disposals. He’s had 26, 18, and 22 this season.
Reef McInnes 1+ Goals – Made the most of his opportunity last weekend with three goals. He’ll be bobbing around all game in the forward line and should kick at least one in a high-scoring affair.
SGM Odds: $4.10 at BoomBet
