Week 1 in the NFL culminates with a massive AFC East matchup, as the Buffalo Bills head to MetLife Stadium to take on the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets. With both teams expecting to make the playoffs, and even push towards a Super Bowl, the stakes are as high as they could be for a week 1 matchup.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our Best Bet. Make sure you are following BeforeYouBet, as we will have dedicated Match Previews for all Prime-Time NFLgames this season, as well as a preview of the main slate on Monday’s. All for free!
NFL Week 1 Tuesday Betting Tips
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, Tuesday 12th September, 10:15am (AEST)
Last Season
The Jets showed promise last season on the defensive side of the ball, finishing with the 4th best defensive record in the NFL. They also uncovered some fantastic rookies, with Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson winning defensive and offensive rookie of the year respectively. Add to this the early emergence of running back Breece Hall, and the Jets have plenty of reasons to be optimistic moving forward. They only managed a 7-10 record, with mainly terrible quarterback play throughout the season, but Jets fans believe they have addressed that issue, with the huge signing of 4-time Most Valuable Player, Aaron Rodgers. Can this team go all the way?
The Bills were amongst the favourites all season to claim the franchise’s inaugural Super Bowl, however there were cracks in the team throughout the season, despite the teams impressive 13-3 record. They never quite looked like the team most pundits believed they could be, and were poor in the playoffs, sneaking by a Skylar Thompson-led Miami Dolphins in Wild Card Week, before being utterly dominated by the Bengals in the Divisional Round, going down 27-10. This team is built to win now, and anything less than a Super Bowl will again be viewed as a failure.
Injury Report
New York Jets
Carter Warren (OT) – OUT
Ifeadi Odenigbo / Bradlee Anae (DE) – OUT
Jarrick Bernard-Converse (SAF) – OUT
Kenny Yeboah (TE) – OUT
Chuck Clark (DB) - OUT
Breece Hall (RB) – Questionable
Duane Brown / Mekhi Becton (OT) – Questionable
Buffalo Bills
Justin Shorter (WR) – OUT
Von Miller (OLB) – OUT
Baylon Spector (LB) – OUT
Tommy Doyle (OT) – OUT
Nyheim Hines (RB) – OUT
Zach Davidson (TE) – OUT
Micah Hyde (SAF) – Questionable
Match Preview
As usual, these sides met twice last season, with the spoils being split 1-1. In week 9, the Jets managed a come-from-behind 20-17 victory, with two Josh Allen picks proving costly. The Bills exacted their revenge in week 14, sneaking by the Mike White-led Jets 20-12. The Jets’ defence showed they are capable of holding the Bills to a relatively low total, now can their offense do the job required to get the win?
This one opened with the Bills listed as 2.5-point favourites on the road, and the number hasn’t changed. My number is also 2.5, so I have no edge here on either team. I would lean towards the Bills here, with the Jets likely not to be at their best offensively this early in the season. However, given the lack of edge, and the whole home dog in a Divisional matchup in week 1 trend, I’ll steer clear.
As for the total, it opened 46, and you can still find 46’s around, however it has moved down a shade at most books to 45.5. With two top 5 defences clashing, and a week 1 Divisional matchup on tap, I love the under here. Only once in the past 8 matches between these two teams has the total gone over 45.5 points, and whilst I do expect the Jets’ offence to be better this season, I do believe it will take a little while to gel. Ultimately, I love these two defences most of all, and in a huge Monday Night Football game, I expect a low scoring battle of attrition.
Only small outlay this early in the season, but we are on the under here.
Under 45.5 total points
$1.94 (1.5 Units)
