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Big Bash League (BBL11): Renegades vs Heat Betting Tips

January 6th 2022, 11:06am, By: Jack Tobin

BBL11 Renegades vs Heat Betting Tips

The BBL heads to Geelong for the first time this season, as the Renegades host the Heat to kick off a Thursday night double header. The Heat have been ravaged by Covid and the Renegades could leapfrog them into fifth with a win! As always, we’ve got you covered with our tips and preview for this clash.

BBL11 Renegades vs Heat Betting Tips

GMHBA Stadium, Thursday January 6th, 6.05pm (AEDT)

Melbourne Renegades 

Likely XI: Mackenzie Harvey, Sam Harper, Aaron Finch, Shaun Marsh, Nic Maddinson, Mohammad Nabi, James Seymour, Jack Prestwidge, James Pattinson, Kane Richardson, Reece Topley, Zahir Khan

The Renegades will have some selections to ponder, with James Seymour’s 17 not out as the X-Factor a decision to make. The Renegades bowling attack was outstanding against the Stars without Will Sutherland, and with Sutherland having scored just 27 runs at an average of 5.4, Seymour provides much needed batting depth to this Renegades side. Reece Topley will be out for the rest of the tournament after the ECB requested their players selected on their tour of the West Indies, return home to quarantine. Topley’s absence will likely be filled by James Pattinson, who missed the Melbourne derby after waiting for a PCR test. 

The Renegades picked up a much needed five wicket win in the Melbourne Derby on Monday, moving them to 11 points and keeping their slim finals hopes alive. The win was set up by the Renegades bowling attack with Nic Maddinson (3/20), Kane Richardson (3/24) and Reece Topley (3/27) bowling the Stars out for 126.

Despite a poor start to the season, with Aaron Finch & Shaun Marsh back in the side and the Stars Covid dramas the Renegades have an opportunity to find their way into the top five. With a batting unit featuring Finch, Marsh, Nic Maddinson and Mackenzie Harvey, there’s enough quality for the Renegades to start putting up some winning scores with the bat.

Brisbane Heat 

14 Man Squad: Tom Cooper (c), Fakhar Zaman*, Jack Clayton*, Sam Heazlett, Jake Lehmann*, Lachlan Pfeffer*, Steve McGiffin*, Will Prestwidge*, Mujeeb Ur Rahman*, Ronan McDonald*, David Grant*, Bryce Street*, Paddy Dooley*, Jack Wood
*In line to make Heat debut

There’s plenty of uncertainty around the Heat who have been decimated by twelve positive Covid tests, which saw their game against the Sixers postponed as they were unable to field a squad of thirteen. The Heat have had to scour Premier Cricket to fill out their roster, much like the Stars, which will make this fixture incredibly difficult for them.

The Heat have eight new players in their squad and this Covid drama couldn’t have come at a worse time, with the Renegades just three points behind the fifth placed Heat. Tom Cooper takes the captaincy, while Bryce Street and Sam Heazlett are the most notable inclusions.

In some big positives for the Heat, star spinner Mujeeb is available and Pakistani opener Fakhar Zaman will make his debut. Zaman has scored 4159 T20 runs at a strike rate of 132, and will bring some much needed experience to this Heat line up. 

Match Predicition

The Renegades would’ve fancied themselves against a full strength Heat outfit, given their 10-6 head to head record against Brisbane, and a 6-2 record when chasing against the Heat. Heat have scored less than 152 in five of their eight games this season, and that can only get worse with the established talent going out of their side. 

As was seen with the Stars, even against one of the lower placed sides in the competition in the Renegades - the gap in talent is just too much to cover. The Renegades have been massively helped by the Covid chaos, and will pick up their second win in a row.

There's not a lot of meat left on the bone for the Renegades at odds of just $1.29. Maybe look to add them to score 145+ if they bat first to add some extra value. 

Melbourne Renegades

$1.29

Same Game Multi

With the chaos in the Heat squad, we’re going heavy on the Renegades batsmen for our SGM. To begin our same game multi, we’ve got Aaron Finch to score 20+ runs. Our BBL Data Tools tell us that Finch has hit the 20+ mark in 45% of his matches since BBL07. Finch has scored 433 runs at an average of 48 against the Brisbane Heat, most of any player in matches between the Renegades and Heat. The Australian white ball skipper is coming off a half century in the derby, and will be looking to go large against an undermanned Heat side. 

Our second leg is Shaun Marsh to score 10+ runs. Marsh made his first appearance this season on Monday, and has been one of the most consistent scorers in the BBL. Our BBL Data Tools show us that Marsh has hit the 10+ mark in 76% of his matches since BBL07, the most of any Renegades player with over five games of experience. Despite being in a Renegades side last year that struggled badly, Marsh still scored 316 runs in 12 games at an average of 26, with three half centuries. 

To finish off the multi, we’ve got the first dismissal to be caught, which has hit in over 80% of games this season.

Aaron Finch 20+ Runs
Shaun Marsh 10+ Runs
1st Wicket - Caught

Odds will be posted when Markets are available for this match.

 

Jack Tobin has a Bachelor of Media and Communications Degree, majoring in Sports Media, and has been part of the Before You Bet writing staff since 2019.

Jack is a sports fanatic but is particularly keen on Cricket, AFL, Basketball, NFL and Soccer where he has a keen eye for spotting a winner or three. Jack is still waiting for Essendon to win a final in the AFL, while he also supports the Miami Heat in the NBA, Manchester United in the EPL and the Seattle Seahawks in the NFL.

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