Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Ascot on Saturday, December 7th.
The Group 1 Kingston Town Classic headlines today's meeting and rounds out The Masters carnival. Check out our comprehensive runner-by-runner Kingston Town Classic preview and betting tips.
@Tim_Tips' has previewed every race on today's card below with his tips and best bets.
Ascot Racing Tips: 2019 Kingston Town Classic Day
Best Bet: Race 3 - (8) Midnight Sky
Best Value Bet: Race 9 - (3) Plays The Game / (12) Stafford's Lad
(1) Starfield Impact is the one to beat here but I wouldn't be taking $1.70 in a race like this. She was a dominant winner of the Crystal Slipper two weeks ago but that was on a leaders' biased day and she carries top weight as a penalty for winning that race. Granted, that was a much harder race on paper than what she appears to get today but she'll have to carry 58kg and give weight away to every other runner, so it wouldn't shock me to see her find one better. Just at the price I'm not interested but there's also not a great deal to beat her. (9) Winsalot trialled really well alongside Supremacy Stakes winner Prim And Proper, but she's only had that one 400m trial leading into her race debut which is the obvious worry. Paul Jordan normally gets his horses ready for these juvenile races so expect (6) Mindarie to go well. (5) Chix Flix has trialled well. Tipping Starfield Impact but wouldn't be taking $1.70.
(1) Starfield Impact
$1.70
This rivals the Kingston Town Classic as the most exciting race of the day! (12) This'll Testya is something special and just wins. I was on track for her debut at Bunbury and she was simply sensational, jumping straight to the front and blowing the field away with ease. She could have won by much further if Pike asked her to. Adam Durrant has said this could be his best sprinter he's ever had so sit back and enjoy! (5) Zenaze was backed as if unbeatable at longer odds last weekend and got up right on the line. She's just bumped into a very smart one today but can run well again. (8) Rosebush has a good first up record and Ollie is booked to ride. She can fill a placing, while (9) City Circle has strong form from last preparation behind the likes of Dance Music and Flirtini so can definitely run a drum from the good draw.
(12) This'll Testya
$1.40
Pretty keen on (8) Midnight Sky. She's had a slightly unorthadox preparation, resuming over 1400m, stepping up to 1600m, then back to 1200m and now back up to 1600m. She's winless in her last seven starts but she's also had her fair share of bad luck. Surely she gets her chance from barrier 4 today and proves she has a bit too much class for this field. (3) Jedaffair continues to run well and is probably suited back to the mile in my opinion. He's undefeated at the distance but Pike jumps off to ride Midnight Sky. If she's a chance then (4) Nelson's Flight has to be a chance. They went to the line locked together two starts back over the track and distance and he gets in slightly better at the weights. (6) Avidus next best. With even luck, Midnight Sky is the best horse in the field and should prove it.
(3) Carocapo proved he has another string to his bow with a strong victory coming from off the pace after missing the jump last start. He put the writing on the wall with a good effort behind Uni Time and Dance Music two starts back and confirmed that form with a convincing win. Provided he jumps cleaner he should be right up on the speed but we now know it's not the end of the world if he steps a touch slow. He's the one to beat again. I'm quite happy to oppose (4) The Nicconian here. I thought he had his chance last week and was a bit disappointing, and his third up record is poor. The stable is flying and he's got a good record over the 1200m so he should be better suited but I'll still take him on. (13) Why Choose Her should be much better suited dropping heavily in grade with the light weight and looks an each way chance. (5) Mankind is flying but he's crying out for a wet track and won't get it. He's yet to win from 11 starts on Good ground but he's knocking on the door. (11) Prevailing Winds was OK first up and tends to improve second up.
I'm quite interested in the three-year-old filly at the bottom of the weights here, (8) Sanabreanna. I'm tipping the three-year-old fillies in the G1 Kingston Town later in the day, and this filly hasn't been far away from the best of them in recent starts. Two starts back she was beaten just over 2L in the Burgess Queen behind Kay Cee and Tuscan Queen after sitting three-wide without cover, and last start she proved it was no fluke as she split the pair in the Champion Fillies. The form has stood up with Kay Cee's effort in the Guineas two weeks ago, and Tuscan Queen will start a clear favourite in the Group 1. Drawn well in barrier 4, gets weight off the rest of the field and I think she'll prove very hard to beat. (2) Massimo is obviously the one to beat. He's won four of his six career starts and comes off a win in the Placid Ark Stakes last start. (5) Laverrod ran 2nd to Massimo in that race and he was only first up, so should be improved from that run, which would put him right in this race given he was only beaten 0.3L. (4) Annihilator steps up sharply in grade but keeps improving with every start.
(2) Electric Light improved as expected in the Jungle Mist Classic last start, reeling off the fastest final 200m of the entire meeting to win coming from off the speed, which not many other horses managed to do on the day. She cops 1kg in the weights today but she can win again. The 1200m is her pet distance but she has won at 1400m previously so it's not that much of a worry, especially with how she hit the line last time. (10) Beautiful Mind looked to have absolutely every chance in the Jungle Mist and was simply beaten fair and square by Electric Light. She draws barrier 1 here so she will sit third the rail and she should be better suited third up, but Electric Light was much stronger late last time so I'm not sure the 1kg will be enough to turn the tables. If she steals a few lengths early in the straight it will give Electric Light something to chase though. (7) Bel My Pago is the stablemate of Beautiful Mind and has been overlooked by the market. She's a $13 chance and that's over the odds. She was the only other horse in the race outside of Electric Light to break 11 seconds for her final furlong. She was first up from an eight-week break leading into that, so she should come on from that. She's not hopeless in this at all. (9) Forgotten Star is another at double figure odds that can fill a place.
Value: (7) Bel My Pago $13
I'm somewhat concerned this may be an afterthought but (12) Flirtini surely proves very hard to beat. She won two on the bounce storming home from the back of the field leading into the Winterbottom last week, where she once again hit the line powerfully in a race that was dominated by on-pacers. She unsurprisingly ran the fastest final 200m, 400m and 600m of the race. She's only raced over 1400m once before and that was when she ran 2nd in the Burgess Queen to Lady Cosmology, with Arcadia Queen back in 3rd. I'm confident she'll get the distance and should be able to win. Stablemate (2) Valour Road also takes his place after failing in the Winterbottom last week. He's been a run behind all prep but maybe third up on the quick back-up will suit him. He's been overlooked by the market, but I'd certainly respect him. (8) Stageman was blocked the entire straight in the Winterbottom. With even luck, he'd be right in the finish in this. He's been up forever and this is his first time at 1400m. I'll take him on but he always runs well.
Click here to read our 2019 Kingston Town Classic Preview & Betting Tips!
The speed map could be the deciding factor in this race, because I think whoever out of (8) British Bessy and (11) Sentimental Gift settles closer to the speed (or at least whichever horse is ahead of the other at the top of the straight) will probably win. These two horses met three weeks ago when British Bessy won by 1.7L. They ran basically an identical final 400m but Sentimental Gift ran a better final 200m. That didn't matter though because she couldn't run down British Bessy, who sat ahead of her in the run. British Bessy then lined up last weekend and was very well backed, but I hated the drop back from 2150m to 1800m and it proved to be her undoing, as she could only manage a midfield finish. Straight back up to 2100m today is much better for her, I just wish they hadn't run last weekend. Sentimental Gift has had three weeks between runs and probably brings the better set up to the race, but it really depends on where she gets to from barrier 6. I think she's short enough at $2.50. (2) Here Comes Lenni is another that didn't handle the drop back in distance last start but will be better off back up in distance today. (3) Plays The Game was just over 2L away from British Bessy and Sentimental Gift two starts back, where he just peaked on his run late. He was second up at 2150m on that occasion and has had another run at Bunbury since. I think he's a big price at $31 with Chris Parnham going back on. If you include him, then you must include (12) Stafford's Lad at $23. He ran 2nd ahead of Plays The Game at Bunbury last start and ran a better final 400m and 200m.
Value: (3) Plays The Game $31 & (12) Stafford's Lad $23
