Jack Tobin has you covered with his tips for week one of the AFLW finals, and be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for our AFLW previews each week.
AFLW Week One Finals Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Adelaide
Friday 7:10pm AEDT, Ikon Park
The second qualifying takes place on Friday night, in what is set to be a cracking contest between the Demons and Crows. Melbourne come into the finals as the form team of the competition with six consecutive wins, by an average margin of 50 points. The Dees demolished West Coast 79-1 last week, and will be desperate to secure a home preliminary final.
After a dominant patch of form during the middle of the season, Adelaide’s form has dropped despite continuing to win games. Between rounds 3-6 Adelaide went 4-0 with an average winning margin of 43 points, with two wins over ten goals. Between rounds 7-10 the Crows were 3-1 with an average winning margin of 12, with no wins over 18 points.
A home Preliminary Final and an extremely enhanced chance of making the Grand Final awaits the winner, while the loser will have to take the long route and likely go through Brisbane to make it to the final game of the season. Melbourne knocked off the Crows in Adelaide back in Round One, and with the red hot form they’re in, they’ll make it two wins from two games against Adelaide in Season 7.
Melbourne -15.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Brisbane vs Richmond
Saturday 4:10pm AEDT, Metricon Stadium
An epic draw on the final day of the home & away season secured the double chance for Richmond, who embark on their first ever finals campaign in the AFLW. The Tigers haven’t lost since Round 2, with seven straight wins before last week’s draw against North Melbourne. Richmond head to Metricon Stadium to take on the Lions, with the Tigers the only team in the competition to beat Brisbane this season.
The Lions rounded out a dominant home & away season with a 45 point win over Collingwood that secured the minor premiership. Brisbane had a 9-1 record, and were the best attacking team in the competition, averaging 54 points per game. Although the Lions forward line has taken the majority of the spotlight this season, they’ve been outstanding in defence, with the second best defence in the competition, conceding just 19 points per game.
Brisbane have won their last three games at Metricon Stadium, in a venue that’s quickly becoming a fortress for them given the advantage the conditions present. Those three wins have come by an average winning margin of 45 points, and the Lions will be looking to make a statement after their loss to Richmond earlier this season. Brisbane’s firepower in attack along with their outstanding defence, means there’s very little margin for error for the Tigers. Brisbane’s finals experience will also be crucial against a young Richmond outfit, who they will be too strong for on Saturday afternoon.
Brisbane -18.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Geelong vs North Melbourne
Saturday 7:10pm AEDT, GMHBA Stadium
Saturday night football sees Geelong make their finals debut when they host North Melbourne at GMHBA Stadium. The Cats have been huge improvers this season, kicking their highest score in the club’s history of 15.12.102 in their 75 point win over Sydney last week. Geelong won just three games games across 2021 and 2022, but have won seven games this season, with their young list embracing Daniel Lowther's defensive system.
The Roos come into the finals on the back of a thrilling draw with the Tigers, with their inaccuracy costing them the win and subsequently a top four berth. Despite missing out on the double chance, North Melbourne wouldn't be too disappointed getting to face a Geelong side that hasn't experienced finals before. If North Melbourne can disrupte Geelong's desire to play slow football early, they're going to put the Cats under some serious pressure.
If there’s going to be an upset this weekend, this is the fixture it’s going to happen in. The Kangaroos are vastly more experienced in finals football compared to the Cats, having featured in the finals in each or the last three seasons. North Melbourne have had the wood over Geelong across the history of the AFLW, with a 4-0 record against the Cats. Geelong have had an excellent season, but can they stand up under the bright lights of finals football? The Kangaroos are battle hardened after two massive games against Collingwood and Richmond, and are primed to knock off the young Geelong outfit.
Tip: North Melbourne, Odds TBA
Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs
Sunday 3:10pm AEDT, Victoria Park
Sunday afternoon sees a huge Elimination final between the Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs. The seventh placed Bulldogs are riding a wave full of momentum coming into the finals on the back of three straight wins. After Round 8 the Pies looked a certain lock for top 4, however back to back losses in the final two games of the season sees Collingwood lining up this weekend with their season on the line.
Collingwood’s defensive game has gone to water over the last two weeks, conceding scores of 55 and 57 points. Across the first eight rounds of the season, the Pies conceded 16 points per game. If Colligwood are to go deep in this finals series, they're going to have to get back to their defensive brand that saw them become one of the best teams in the competition earlier in the season.
Collingwood have enjoyed playing against the Bulldogs, having won four of the five meetings between the two clubs across the history of the competition. Not only have they had the wood over the Dogs, the Pies have been doing it in convincing fashion, having won three in a row against the Dogs by margins of 25, 36 and 32 points. Despite Collingwood's struggles over the last two weeks, they're best is up there with anyone in the competition, and their ceiling is significantly higher than the Bulldogs, who are yet to beat a top eight team this season. Collingwood will be too good for the Dogs, and move on to the Semi Finals next week.
Collingwood -3.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
