AFL Round 12 concludes on Monday night with a clash between Richmond and Gold Coast. Both clubs are coming off disappointing results in Round 11 and will be looking to bounce back with a win. The game kicks off from 7.10pm at the Gabba and as usual, we have a full preview and betting tips for the clash below.
We will be posting a new article EVERY DAY during footy mania, so make sure you regularly check our AFL Betting Tips page for tips on the games of the day.
AFL Round 12 Richmond vs Gold Coast Betting Tips
Gabba, Monday 7.10pm (AEST)
Wins have really dried up for the 13th placed Suns and it won’t get any easier when they take on the 6th placed Tigers on Monday night, whom they haven’t beaten in their last five attempts. The line has been set at 21.5 in favour of the Tigers and the total is currently sitting at 129.5.
Richmond
Richmond faced the tough task of taking on the ladder-leading Power at Adelaide Oval in Round 11. They were in it up to their eye balls until three quarter time, before running out of gas in the fourth and finishing up 21 point losers.
The Tigers have made three changes to their team that lost to the Power last weekend, bringing in Jack Graham, Oleg Markov and Trent Cotchin for the omitted trio of Derek Eggmolesse-Smith, Jack Ross and Josh Caddy. Dion Prestia is still a month away, David Astury is close to returning, and Bachar Houli and Shane Edwards are out indefinitely for personal reasons.
The three Tiger changes this week are all like for like, so you can expect more of the same in terms of team structures and players running through the midfield. Looking at the player prop markets, we’re eyeing off Shai Bolton and Dustin Martin. Both players spent large amounts of time in the midfield last weekend, each attending 24 of a possible 28 centre bounces. This has been a common theme for both guys for the best part of a month, so we’ll be taking them to accumulate 20+ disposals each in a Same Game Multi.
Bolton + Martin 20+ Disposals
$2.25
Gold Coast
Gold Coast found themselves in a very winnable position against Essendon last time out but the finish line just didn’t come quick enough. They ended up having to settle for the draw and will see that as a huge opportunity missed to stay in touch with the top eight.
The Suns have opted to manage key players in David Swallow and Jarrod Harbrow for their clash with the Tigers, while Sean Lemmens has also been omitted. Coming in are Alex Sexton, Caleb Graham and Nick Holmon. The Suns injury list includes just two of their walk-up starters, with Matt Rowell (season) and Rory Thompson (2 weeks) the big names there.
David Swallow attended 14 of a possible 24 centre bounces last weekend, so there’s some big midfield minutes on offer for one or a few players against the Tigers. Lachie Weller was the main beneficiary when Swallow missed their Round 2 clash against West Coast, attending 67% of the centre bounces, which is the second most for him from his 11 matches this season. He also went onto collect a season high 24 disposals in that match, so the stats suggest that he’s the one to look for here. You can currently get better than $2 for Weller to collect 20+ touches at Sportsbet.
Weller 20+ Disposals
$2.10
Prediction
As mentioned above, the match line has the Tigers starting as 21.5 point favourites, and the total score line is currently 129.5 points. Richmond have won each of the past five meetings with Gold Coast by an average margin of 59.8 points, which does suggest the line is a little skinny. However, the Suns have taken a few strides forward this season and the Tigers still have a couple of key outs, so we’ll leave that market alone. Instead, we’ll be backing the Overs here. The average total points scored in the past five matches between these clubs is 190.2. Deduct 20% off that total due to the shortened quarters and you get 152.2 points, which is a good 23 points over the line on Monday night.
