AFL Round 20’s feature matchup this Thursday night is a massive game between two massive Vicotrian clubs with Hawthorn hosting Carlton at the MCG. The Hawks are currently sitting in 5th spot on the ladder and locked into a four way log jam of teams on 48 premiership points. Not only will the Hawks be looking for a win but given the way the Blues have been going, they will be hunting a chance to boost their percentage as well to best position themselves for the finals.
As always this is all about the daily fantasy and this massive Thursday night game draws another massive $50,000 prize pool at Draftstars in their main contest. In addition, there are a variety of alternate contests:
AFL $50,000+ Hawthorn vs Carlton
AFL $5,000+ Hawthorn vs Carlton High Roller ($150 Entry)
AFL $3,000+ Hawthorn vs Carlton Mini ($2 Entry)
AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Round 20 Hawthorn vs Carlton
AFL Fantasy Round 20 Hawthorn vs Carlton: Where to Attack?
Carlton’s season is in the toilet and they all know it. Sitting 12th on the ladder they have been leaking fantasy points in the all the positions you would expect over the last 10 games. Their midfield has been getting well beaten all season and they are giving up over 5 points per game above league average to that position (fifth most in the league).
This leakage in the middle has then led to opposition scoring above average points at the key forward and general forward position. The key forwards have been giving them most problems, at over 3 points per game above league average.
The only real area that you can target the Hawks is via the ruck where they have been giving up just under 10 points per game above the league average (third most in the league). They are giving up over 4 points per game above league average to general forwards, which looks like an outlier given they are well below average across all other positions. But it is worth considering that the Hawks have difficulty defending smaller forwards given they are top heavy in the back line.
Game Script – Hawks midfielders and forwards
AFL Fantasy Round 20 Hawthorn vs Carlton: Our Value Fantasy Picks
Mitch Lewis ($7,630) returned last week after a long time out of the game with injuries. He had a slow, rusty start as expected but should have washed some of the dust off and be starting to find form at senior level again. I love this price point as Lewis was one of the more promising young key forwards in the league prior to the injury. As noted above this is an elite matchup for Hawks key forwards and you can leverage some value here. If you would like to spend up further look to Jack Gunston ($10,130) who has had a massive bounce back year for the Hawks.
Lachlan Cowan ($9,970) we have been rostering these last few weeks and he continues to hold a nice value price point at under $10k. On a single game slate he screams out value option with what is now looking like a relatively safe floor of the last few weeks with three straight scores of 89, 80 and 71. An obvious game stack is to look to link him up with other Blues backs, and the premium option I like on this slate is Sam Docherty ($13,060) purely for a narrative play given he announced his retirement this week.
AFL Fantasy Round 20 Hawthorn vs Carlton: Our Mid Price Fantasy Picks
Zac Williams ($10,150) is worth consideration given he has been seeing around 40-50% of the Blues centre bounces over the past two weeks. This has not yet resulted in any boost in fantasy scoring during these games posting just 61 and 51 fantasy points, but anytime someone is getting that role on a single game slate they are in play to roster.
Will Day ($11,830) will return after a long break due to injury this season. He is the level of player that comes straight back into the AFL level so there have been no warm up VFL games. That said, he is so under priced for his season average of 91 points per game and an upside of 120+ he should be right in consideration given this matchup. Also consider what his return will do to the midfield rotation, specially James Worpel and Josh Ward who will likely see a reduction in centre bounces to accommodate Will.
AFL Fantasy Round 20 Hawthorn vs Carlton: Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Dylan Moore ($13,580) is fresh off his biggest game of the season at 143 fantasy points and should see just an easy of a matchup this week. I love going to Moore as part of Hawks forward stacks on this slate.
Here’s our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for Hawthorn vs Carlton
Weather Report for Thursday 24th July
16 degrees and mostly sunny – perfect winter football conditions.
AFL Betting Markets Round 20 Thursday
Hawthorn ($1.22) vs Carlton ($4.35)
Points: 157.5
Line: Hawthorn -25.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Preview and Betting Tips. Our experts break down each individual game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!