The first week of the finals series for the 2025 AFL Premiership Season is here and we get underway with the minor premiers Adelaide hosting the fourth-placed Collingwood at the Adelaide Oval. Both teams will be gunning for the week off and opportunity to host a home Preliminary Final.
As always this is all about the daily fantasy and this Thursday night game draws a boosted $70,000 prize pool at Draftstars in their main contest. In addition, there are a variety of alternate contests:
AFL $70,000+ Crows vs Magpies
AFL $7,500+ Crows vs Magpies High Roller ($150 Entry)
AFL $3,000+ Crows vs Magpies Mini ($2 Entry)
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Adelaide vs Collingwood Qualifying Final
AFL Fantasy Qualifying Final Crows vs Magpies: Where to Attack?
Adelaide has been locking down teams from a fantasy perspective across the ground. Specifically, their backs have been restricting key forwards to the lowest scores in the entire league by a long way. They have been holding opposition midfielders to just under league average and turning the screws on defenders across all roles. The only position that has been outscoring league average against the Crows over the last 10 games is the ruck, which has been a turnaround from earlier in the year.
Collingwood on the other hand has primarily been giving up points across the wing and half back line. Attacking half backs have been scoring over 3 points above league average against the Magpies over the last 10 games and designated kickers have been conceding the fourth most points in the league over this same period. Collingwood, like the Crows, have had significant success against opposition forwards holding both key and general roles to over 5 points per game below league average.
This leaves game script to consider, and with the Crows favourites in this game, I expect Adelaide to take advantage of Collingwood who look to be running out of steam late in the year.
Game Script – Adelaide forwards and backs, split the midfield
AFL Fantasy Qualifying Final Crows vs Magpies: Our Value Fantasy Picks
Beau McCreery ($8,780) will get limited opportunity in the midfield for the Magpies attending around 10-20% of the centre bounces over the last two rounds. He also pushes up the ground around the contest, which can help his scoring in a contested game like this final. Over the last three games McCreery is averaging 74 points per game and offers a high floor, which is key in for value plays in these finals games.
Max Michalanney ($7,560) offers plenty of upside at this price point. He was coming off back-to-back scores of 84 and 67 prior to his injury game and notched up a season high 116-point game earlier in the year. As noted above, the Magpies have been giving up above average points across the back line, so stacking up the Crows backs together looks a solid play, and there is value starting here given Michalanney’s injury impacted score.
AFL Fantasy Qualifying Final Crows vs Magpies: Our Mid Price Fantasy Picks
Jordan De Goey ($10,010) is back and attending over 55% of the Magpies centre bounces. In a must win game to close out the Magpies season, he posted his highest score of the season and looked to be back to some of his better form with an 88-point fantasy game. The midfield is the one position where Adelaide do not totally lock down on their opponent, bringing Magpies players into play on this slate.
AFL Fantasy Qualifying Final Crows vs Magpies: Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Darcy Cameron ($14,460) absolutely destroyed Reilly O’Brien late in the season when both sides met posting a game-high 125 fantasy points. As we noted in the areas to attack above, the ruck has been the best avenue for fantasy scoring against the Crows over the last 10 games. The one risk is that Collingwood are playing Mason Cox ($7,000) in this game, which often reduces Cameron’s opportunity. If I was looking to pay down in the ruck spot then I would take the value on Cox.
Jordan Dawson ($16,610) / Nick Daicos ($16,510) The one strategy that often holds true for big finals is that the best players will rise to the top. Spending up on the two best midfielders makes sense to me as I am not expecting any hard tags in this match up, and when these two teams met a few weeks back in a hard fought game, Daicos was one of only three players on the ground to post 100+, while Dawson had a down game with just 91 points.
Heres our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for Adelaide vs Collingwood
Weather Report for Thursday September 4th, 2025
Adelaide - Partly cloudy, 16 degrees. No issues at all with the weather.
AFL Betting Markets Qualifying Final
Adelaide ($1.59) vs Collingwood ($2.36)
Line: Adelaide -8.5
Points: 160.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Previews and Betting Tips for each match. Our experts break down each individual game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
