Round 6 of the 2024 AFL Premiership Season gets underway this Thursday night with St Kilda hosting the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium. This is a crucial game for both sides as they are both currently sitting 2-3 and one win outside the top 8. St Kilda have had an up and down season with a great win against Collingwood and valiant loss last week by 1 point to the Giants. Meanwhile the Bulldogs appear is disarray with coach Luke Beveridge under question with several bizarre selection decisions that have puzzled supporters and fantasy players alike. Which side will be able to get themselves into the finals mix with a win in this one? More importantly which players will best help our daily fantasy teams?
Draftstars continue to offer massive prize pools with the Thursday night main being worth $60,000 along with their usual variety of alternate contests:
- AFL $60,000+ Saints vs Bulldogs
- AFL $5,000+ Saints vs Bulldogs High Roller ($150 Entry)
- AFL $2,000+ Saints vs Bulldogs Fiver
- AFL $3,000+ Saints vs Bulldogs Mini ($2 Entry)
The AFL Star contest is back for 2024 and Draftstars are offering the biggest prize pool in Australian DFS history with a $1 million guaranteed final with $250,000 top prize! There are qualifiers and satellites running for every AFL match, while there will also be a sprinkling of qualifiers across other sports such as NRL and NBA.
Meanwhile the 1000 AFL Target contests are set to return to Draftstars for the first time since 2018. Enter the contest and hit the 1000-point barrier with your team to scoop the jackpot!
Betting Markets
St Kilda ($1.75) vs Western Bulldogs ($2.08)
Points: 157.5
Line: St Kilda -3.5
If you’re looking to bet on the AFL this season, then you can bet with PlayUp by using the same account that you have at Draftstars. PlayUp are Australian owned and offer a strong range of AFL betting markets and offers, including Same Game Multis.
Additionally, we have a full Saints vs Bulldogs Betting Preview for the game where we provide our best bet for the game as well as a great value Same Game Multi!
Weather
Marvel Stadium means no threat of weather impacting the game! Let’s play some fantasy.
Where to Attack?
The Western Bulldogs have long struggled to defend the oppositions key position forwards and that has been no different this season. Through five games they have been giving up over 11 points per game above league average to tall forwards, which is the second most in the league in 2024.
On the other side, the Saints have conceded the most points in the league to the opponents designated kickers out of defence this season at over 10 points per game above league average. This is a trend that has also continued since 2023 with Ross Lyons game structure being conducive to sides racking up possessions across their back line.
Both sides have been difficult to score against through the midfield, which means we are likely to see a well contested battle through this portion of the ground.
Game Script – St Kilda forwards, Western Bulldogs backs
VALUE PLAYS
Tim Membrey ($8,770) will be the main key position target for the Saints this week with Max King out of the lineup. He hasn’t had the most prolific season and the biggest question is how much does he even have left in the tank at this point in his career, but he has been relatively consistent with scores in the 60 plus range. I love this price point for him in what is the best matchp in the league for key forwards. You can consider stacking him up with other talls in the Saints forward line such as Anthony Caminiti ($7,650) or Cooper Sharman ($7,560) or even go straight down to them if you need the savings to spend up elsewhere.
Tim Membrey is paying $2.10 to score 70+ fantasy points, which looks to be good value in this matchup.
Hugo Garcia ($7,070) is seeing some of the midfield time for the Saints attending 30% of the centre bounces last week. He was able to return a 53 point fantasy game in this role, which is not world beating but on a single game slate might be enough value to get you by at this price point. Keep an eye on the sub risk for him and possibly consider alternatives such as Zak Jones ($8,400) who has been recalled, or Mattaes Phillipou ($8,170) who is also getting limited opportunity through the midfield this season.
MID PRICED PLAYS
Lachlan Bramble ($10,890) has taken the most kick ins for the Bulldogs this season, which is somewhat of a surprise given the number of quality half backs they have. That said, this makes the matchup against the Saints an elite spot for him noting as we outlined above that St Kilda give up the most points in the league to designated kickers. Bramble has already shown 100 point upside this season and I love stacking him up with the other Bulldogs half backs, particularly Ed Richards ($11,030) who is yet to post a big score this year and therefore could be a low owned point of difference.
Keep an eye on the Bulldogs sub situation, as for all we know Bevo could make the Bont the sub this week, but if Bailey Dale is playing a full game this may cut into Brambles kick in opportunities.
Jackson Macrae ($11,580)… with Tom Liberatore out this week there is a large hole that needs to be filled in the Bulldogs midfield. They rarely deviate too much from the trio of Bontempelli, Treloar and Liberatore, but this week they will be forced too. Libba has been attending around 70-80% of the Bulldogs centre bounces this year and these will likely be picked up by Macrae, Ryley Sanders ($10,760) or potentially James Harmes ($9,360) who has come back into the side after solid VFL form.
Macrae attended 29% of the centre bounces last week and look for him to be eager to really cement his role after starting the season in VFL. I could see a huge ceiling score from him this week.
PREMIUM PLAYS
Rowan Marshall ($17,040) has the best matchup in the league for a ruck this week. The Bulldogs have been giving up over 18 points above league average to the position this season, and this is almost double the next highest. In addition, the Bulldogs are splitting the role more between English and Darcy and have also recalled Rory Lobb this week, so it will be a lottery who is even getting the bulk of the rucking duties. Marshall is priced all the way up, but has the best matchup and the role to himself.
Marshall is paying $3.30 for the matches top fantasy score, which looks great value given the how positive the matchup his for his role compared to midfielders.
Suggested Draftstars Team
AFL Fantasy Cheat Sheet
AFL Data Projections - 2024 Rd6 St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs - Downloadable file (.xlsx)
