The first of the bye rounds for the season saw a few teams get a much-needed rest while others maintained their good form in Round 12 action. Collingwood remain on top of the ladder and Premiership favourites after defeating the Hawks, while Fremantle are now inside the Top 8 after a great away win against the Suns. The Crows are also eyeing off a Top 4 spot after smashing the Swans.
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the AFL season, along with our Brownlow vote predictions and projections using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2025 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page and check out the latest Brownlow Odds.
2025 AFL Brownlow Round 12 Overview
We have a new favourite for the Brownlow with Geelong's Bailey Smith dismantling the Eagles to record another likely three Brownlow votes. Noah Anderson is a good smokey as he was one of the best in a losing effort, while Nick Daicos, Nic Martin and Andrew Brayshaw may also pick up votes in Round 12.
Check out our 2025 Round 12 Brownlow votes below and our updated 2025 Brownlow leaderboard here!
2025 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 12 Match Analysis
Brisbane 13.12.90 def Essendon 11.6.72
Essendon kept them honest but the Lions answered with the final three goals of the match to get the points. Hugh McLuggage was sensational with 41 disposals, 11 marks and 7 clearances. Jarrod Berry (25 disposals, 9 marks) and Will Ashcroft (30 disposals, 7 clearances) were good through the midfield while Kai Lohmann (15 disposals, 3 goals) was lively up forward. Jye Caldwell (30 disposals, 8 tackles, 10 clearances, 1 goal) and Nic Martin (29 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals) were excellent for the Bombers.
Hugh McLuggage - 3
Jye Caldwell - 2
Nic Martin - 1
Collingwood 16.11.107 def Hawthorn 8.8.56
The Pies showed they are a step above the Hawks with a commanding victory on Friday night. Steele Sidebottom (27 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals) and Nick Daicos (32 disposals, 7 marks, 6 tackles, 1 goal) were busy in the midfield while Jamie Elliott (5 goals, 12 disposals) and Brody Mihocek (4 goals, 12 disposals, 6 marks) were damaging up forward. Jack Ginnivan (31 disposals, 3 goals) had a great game against his old team but didn’t receive any support.
Steele Sidebottom - 3
Jack Ginnivan - 1
Jamie Elliott - 1
Nick Daicos - 1
Gold Coast 9.10.64 def by Fremantle 11.9.75
A tough win for the Dockers on the Gold Coast in wet conditions really sets them up for a run at the finals. Jordan Clark (30 disposals, 6 marks) and Andrew Brayshaw (30 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) were the leading ball winners, Luke Jackson (27 disposals, 7 tackles, 20 hitouts) was a force on the ball while Shai Bolton (20 disposals, 6 tackles, 3 goals) was electric. Noah Anderson (39 disposals, 12 clearances) and Matt Rowell (27 disposals, 13 tackles, 8 clearances) were immense for the Suns.
Jordan Clark - 3
Noah Anderson - 2
Andrew Brayshaw - 0.5
Shai Bolton - 0.5
GWS Giants 12.8.80 def Richmond 10.17.77
The Giants trailed all day but kicked the only five goals of the last quarter to pinch a win that they perhaps didn’t really deserve. Lachie Ash (35 disposals, 6 marks) was the stand out across half back, with Tom Green (30 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) carrying a huge load in the midfield. Dion Prestia (31 disposals, 5 tackles, 7 clearances, 1 goal) returned in fine form for the Tigers, with Jacob Hopper (29 disposals, 13 clearances, 1 goal) and Tim Taranto (23 disposals, 2 goals) very good against their old team.
Lachie Ash - 2.5
Dion Prestia - 2.5
Jacob Hopper - 1
Sydney 5.11.41 def by Adelaide 21.5.131
The Crows slaughtered the Swans in a dominant performance. The ball and the scoring was largely shared around which might make Brownlow votes tricky but Mark Keane (23 disposals, 10 marks) was a beast in defence while Alex Neal-Bullen (25 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal), Isaac Cumming (21 disposals, 2 goals) and Ben Keays (17 disposals, 6 tackles, 3 goals) were important in their roles. Mark Roberts (21 disposals, 8 marks) and Tom McCartin (20 disposals, 11 marks) were kept busy in defence for the Swans while Brodie Grundy (23 disposals, 6 marks, 35 hitouts, 8 clearances) was tireless in the ruck.
Mark Keane - 2.5
Alex Neal-Bullen - 2.5
Ben Keays - 0.5
Brodie Grundy - 0.5
Melbourne 7.21.63 def by St Kilda 14.7.91
The Saints caused an upset in Alice Springs as the Demons left their kicking boots back in Melbourne. Marcus Windhager (28 disposals, 8 marks) did a marvellous job stopping the dangerous Kysaiah Pickett, while Callum Wilkie (31 disposals, 15 marks), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (29 disposals, 7 marks) and Brad Hill (26 disposals, 13 marks, 1 goal) were also excellent for the Saints. Hard to see the Dees getting anywhere near the votes.
Marcus Windhager - 2.5
Callum Wilkie - 2.5
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera - 1
West Coast 11.7.73 def by Geelong 17.14.116
West Coast hung in there for three quarters but the Cats turned it on in the final quarter to pull clear for a comfortable victory. It’s going to be hard to stop Bailey Smith from the three votes for his 38 disposals, 7 marks and 1 goal as he moves into outright Brownlow favourite. Max Holmes (27 disposals, 7 marks, 7 clearances) and Gryan Miers (26 disposals, 13 marks, 2 goals) were very good while Jeremy Cameron (5 goals, 14 disposals, 7 marks) was actually well held for three quarters before kicking four in the last. Liam Baker (29 disposals) was the leading ball winner for the Eagles.
Bailey Smith - 3
Max Holmes - 2
Gryan Miers - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
