Nine into eight does not go, so someone is going to miss out on finals next week as the 2024 AFL Premiership season wraps up. After a courageous win by Carlton, it's Fremantle who are now on the fringe and needing results to go their way if they are to play finals this season. Top four spots are also still up for grabs, but the Swans have done enough to secure the minor premiership at the top of the ladder. Round 23 was another exciting round with some epic performances, and we look forward to seeing what's in store next week and into the finals!
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the AFL season, along with our Brownlow vote predictions and projections using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2024 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page and check out the latest Brownlow Odds.
2024 AFL Brownlow Round 23 Overview
The cream is rising to the top as the 2024 AFL Premiership season reaches an exciting climax. Patrick Cripps played one of the great games to carry his Blues to an important win and may have done enough to lock up the 2024 Brownlow Medal. However Nick Daicos was also likely to be best afield for the Pies so it could go right down to the wire! Tom Green is making a big run this season and if he can convert some of our predicted two-vote games into three voters, then he's a live chance. Other notables to poll in Round 23 include Isaac Heeney, Marcus Bontempelli, Adam Treloar, Zak Butters Connor Rozee and Jack Steele.
Check out our 2024 Round 23 Brownlow votes below and our updated 2024 Brownlow leaderboard here!
2024 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 23 Match Analysis
Essendon 8.11.59 def by Sydney 15.8.98
The Swans kicked clear in the second half to all-but secure the minor premiership and end the challenge of Essendon for season 2024. Isaac Heeney (22 disposals, 6 marks, 3 goals) and Errol Gulden (25 disposals, 6 marks, 6 clearances) were good in the midfield, while Luke Parker (3 goals, 15 disposals, 6 marks) and Will Hayward (3 goals, 16 disposals, 7 marks) were important cogs. Nic Martin was one of the best afield for his 32 disposals and 3 goals, while Jye Caldwell (31 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) could also hold his head high.
Isaac Heeney - 2.5
Nic Martin - 2.5
Errol Gulden - 1
Gold Coast 9.9.63 def by Melbourne 18.9.117
It’s been a disappointing season for both the Suns and Dees, but it was Melbourne who got a comfortable win. Jack Viney (30 disposals, 10 tackles, 9 clearances, 2 goals) was back to his best and clearly best afield while Ed Langdon (37 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) and Trent Rivers (30 disposals, 6 clearances) were also busy. Noah Anderson (33 disposals, 8 marks) and Touk Miller (28 disposals, 7 clearances) were best for the Suns.
Jack Viney - 3
Ed Langdon - 2
Noah Anderson - 0.5
Trent Rivers - 0.5
GWS Giants 15.11.101 def Fremantle 14.8.92
GWS strengthened their grip on the top four with a tough win while Freo are now on the verge of missing finals. Three Giants clearly stood out from the pack with Brent Daniels (29 disposals, 7 marks, 13 tackles, 7 clearances, 3 goals) having the game of his life, Tom Greene (40 disposals, 13 clearances) dominant in the midfield and Jesse Hogan (6 goals, 15 disposals, 9 marks) unstoppable up forward. The only one who could challenge for votes would be Freo’s Andy Brayshaw who was excellent with 41 disposals and 9 clearances.
Brent Daniels - 3
Tom Green - 2
Jesse Hogan - 1
Collingwood 11.13.79 def Brisbane 11.12.78
The Lions burst out of the blocks but the Pies hunted them down to inflict another cruel defeat on their Grand Final rivals. It was Nick Daicos (25 disposals, 6 marks, 2 goals) who led the charge, with Steele Sidebottom (26 disposals, 8 tackles, 6 clearances), Jeremy Howe (24 disposals, 11 marks) and Josh Daicos (26 disposals, 9 marks) in support. Dayne Zorko (26 disposals, 7 marks) and Will Ashcroft (26 disposals, 6 marks) were good for Brisbane, while Joe Daniher (4 goals, 16 disposals, 10 score involvements) threatened up forward. Lachie Neale (22 disposals, 8 clearances, 2 goals) was good but might not be enough for votes.
Nick Daicos - 3
Steele Sidebottom - 2
Joe Daniher - 1
Port Adelaide 11.14.80 def Adelaide 8.10.58
Port won the Showdown to secure themselves a top four spot and a legitimate shot at the premiership. Zak Butters won the Medal for a Showdown record 42 disposals, plus 10 clearances and a goal. Jason Horne-Francis (23 disposals, 7 marks, 6 tackles, 8 clearances, 2 goals), Connor Rozee (28 disposals, 9 clearances) and Ollie Wines (26 disposals, 6 marks, 8 tackles, 7 clearances) were all good as Port won the clearance battle. Matt Crouch (29 disposals, 8 tackles) and Jordan Dawson (26 disposals, 6 marks, 11 tackles) were best for the Crows.
Zak Butters - 3
Jason Horne-Francis - 2
Connor Rozee - 1
St Kilda 16.11.107 def Geelong 14.5.89
The Saints stunned the Cats in a big upset to leave the Cats hanging onto a spot in the top four. Jack Steele (27 disposals, 10 marks, 10 tackles, 2 goals) led from the front, with Cal Wilkie (28 disposals, 15 marks) equally as good in defence. Rowan Marshall (28 disposals, 7 marks, 21 hitouts, 10 clearances, 1 goal), Jack Sinclair (26 disposals) and Darcy Wilson (25 disposals, 2 goals) were also impressive. Jack Bowes (31 disposals) won the most ball for the Cats, while rookies Lawson Humphries (24 disposals, 7 marks) and Shaun Mannagh (21 disposals, 2 goals) impressed.
Jack Steele - 2.5
Cal Wilkie - 2.5
Rowan Marshall - 1
Western Bulldogs 20.18.138 def North Melbourne 6.6.42
The Bulldogs thumped the Roos with young gun Sam Darcy dominant with 7 goals from 20 disposals and 9 marks. Adam Treloar (33 disposals, 7 tackles), Marcus Bontempelli (29 disposals, 8 marks, 6 clearances), Tom Liberatore (23 disposals, 6 tackles, 10 clearances) and Joel Freijah (29 disposals, 13 marks) were all good performers for the Dogs. Luke Davies-Uniacke (30 disposals, 8 marks, 6 clearances) was again tireless for the Roos.
Sam Darcy - 3
Adam Treloar - 2
Marcus Bontempelli - 1
Hawthorn 19.17.131 def Richmond 10.6.68
The Hawks were 50 points up at quarter-time and the game was as good as over against the Tigers. Jai Newcombe (33 disposals, 14 score involvements, 9 clearances, 1 goal) and James Worpel (29 disposals, 2 goals) were back to their best in the midfield, with good support from Dylan Moore (20 disposals, 9 marks, 7 tackles, 2 goals), Massimo D’Ambrosio (26 disposals, 7 marks) and Karl Amon (26 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal). Their work was capped off by Jack Gunston up forward who finished with 5 goals from 17 disposals and 9 marks.
Jai Newcombe - 3
James Worpel - 2
Jack Gunston - 1
West Coast 4.10.34 def by Carlton 14.15.99
An undermanned Carlton headed west and did what they had to do with a gutsy win against the Eagles. Patrick Cripps may have locked up the Brownlow Medal with his 35 disposals and 10 clearances likely to earn him yet another three votes. George Hewett (35 disposals, 10 tackles), Matthew Kennedy (23 disposals, 2 goals) and Marc Pittonet (20 disposals, 32 hitouts, 8 clearances) all stepped up, while Brodie Kemp showed his versatility by swinging forward to boot 4 goals from 12 disposals and 6 marks.
Patrick Cripps - 3
George Hewett - 2
Brodie Kemp - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
