Not everything is equal even though this is the last-round scramble for play-off spots in Super Rugby Pacific.
Always be on the lookout for teams with nothing to gain in the last round. This weekend, that spells CHIEFS in capital letters even though they are at the top of the table.
A bunch of All Blacks have been rested which gives the Western Force a real shot in Perth.
Last round, we found a $1.89 winner for the Reds losing a tight one to the Highlanders, a $2.50 result for the Rebels thrashing the Force, a tidy $2.20 for a Fergus Burke try-Crusaders win double and the $1.91 for Moana Pasifika sticking close to the Fijian Drua.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Round 15 of Super Rugby Pacific.
2023 Super Rugby Pacific: Round 15 Preview & Betting Tips
ACT Brumbies v Melbourne Rebels
Fri, June 2 GIO Stadium, Canberra, 7.35pm (AEST)
The Brumbies have won the past four times these teams have clashed. The Rebels fired plenty of shots when falling 33-26 when the teams met in May but ultimately didn’t have the polish.
The Brumbies have to win to guarantee a top four spot and a home quarter-final. That’s powerful motivation.
They are a little down on max strength with a second-string front-row and no Noah Lolesio.
The Rebels haven’t won two games in a row all season. That’s why they are 11thdespite all the good stuff.
Only a win is a chance of getting them into the quarter-finals and we don’t yet know how they play under that pressure.
It’s a good test for Rebels playmaker Carter Gordon. The Rebels have loaded their bench to come home strongly in the closing 20 minutes which has been a failing at times.
The big question is whether they’ll still be in touch when Alex Mafi, Pone Fa’amausili, Vaiolini Ekuasi and Stacey Ili are called from the bench. Brumbies.
Brumbies -10.5
$1.92 (4 Units)
Fijian Drua v Queensland Reds
Sat, June 3 HFC Park, Suva, 2.35pm (AEST)
Winner into the play-offs. Loser out. It could be that cut-throat. Both teams will definitely play that way.
The seventh-placed Reds have produced some of their best rugby on the road this season to beat Moana Pasifika and the Chiefs and go within 90 seconds of finishing off the Highlanders.
The Reds have selected wisely with James O’Connor at flyhalf and hard-running Hunter Paisami at inside centre.
It gives the Reds the chance to play a direct, narrow game to earn risk-free metres. It’s a good strategy especially if backed up by good set piece play and a minimum of dropped ball.
The Drua have upset the Crusaders and Hurricanes at home this season so, if they click, the Fijians will blow any team away.
A fascinating game but sense that the Reds have a smart plan and can tackle their way into the play-offs.
Reds -2.5
$1.90 (4 Units)
NSW Waratahs v Moana Pasifika
Sat, June 3 Allianz Stadium, Sydney, 7.35pm (AEST)
A fitting farewell for Michael Hooper at his home ground is what this game is all about for the Waratahs who, win or lose, can’t shift from sixth spot.
It’s strong motivation for a big performance against a team running last at 0-13.
Moana Pasifika run by enough tacklers and score enough tries to win games but conceding an average of 42 points per game shows how porous the defence is.
A faltering scrum and lineout are the other big mark-downs for the islanders.
Waratahs weapon Mark Naqanitawase has switched from wing to fullback for this game and is a big try-scoring chance.
Waratahs -13.5
$1.87 (4 Units)
Western Force v Chiefs
Sat, June 3 HBF Park, Perth 10pm (AEST)
The Force run hot and cold but a shot at making the play-offs is staring them in the face.
The Chiefs are No.1 on the table and can’t be budged so they have spared their Kiwi stars 16 hours of flying time by resting them en masse from this game.
That means no Brodie Retallick, Sam Cane, Damian McKenzie, Luke Jacobson, Brad Weber, Emoni Narawa, Samisoni Taukei’aho and others.
The Force are on a rare streak at HBF Park with six straight wins at home. Big defence has restricted opponents to less than 20 points in four of those games.
That has to be the formula again. It will still be a decent Chiefs side with fullback Shaun Stevenson and All Blacks centre Antony Leinert-Brown in the backline but they are vulnerable.
The make-up of the top eight could easily go down to the final game of the regular season.
Force to Win
$2.35 (3 Units)
More Round 15 Betting Tips
Blues v Highlanders
Sat, June 3 Eden Park, Auckland 5.05pm (AEST)
TIP: Highlanders +15.5 - $1.83 at Ladbrokes
Hurricanes v Crusaders
Sat, June 3 Sky Stadium, Wellington 5.05pm (AEDT)
TIP: Hurricanes WIN - $2.70 at Ladbrokes
