Australia’s five sides all face searching exams in Round 14 to judge their fate in Super Rugby Pacific. The Queensland Reds and Western Force are desperate for wins to lock in their play-off spots and the Melbourne Rebels still have a chance to keep their skinny chances alive. The sixth-placed NSW Waratahs are on a four-game winning streak but whether that makes them a serious contender in the upcoming play-offs will be tested by a trip to Christchurch. If the ACT Brumbies have title hopes, they can show it against the top-placed Chiefs in Canberra.
We found a strong $3.30 winner in Round 13 by tipping the Force to upset the Brumbies. Let’s take a look at our best bets for Round 14 of Super Rugby Pacific.
2023 Super Rugby Pacific: Round 14 Preview & Betting Tips
Highlanders v Queensland Reds
Fri, May 26 Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, 5.05pm (AEST)
The Highlanders are just an average team. The question is whether the Reds are any better than that.
The Reds have produced two of their best displays on the road this season for wins in Apia and New Plymouth. That’s a positive sign that another road trip to NZ isn’t a mental block. The Reds can win this if they tackle like demons, keep down the penalty count and take two or three of the try chances they butchered against the Blues last round.
Playing under the roof at Forsyth Barr Stadium is a plus for the Reds because it takes the wet weather handbrake out of play for the fast-paced style of game they want to play.
Backrowers Fraser McReight and Liam Wright have made the Reds the best team in the comp for forcing turnovers. The Reds are also No.1 for lineout accuracy.
They are two strong stats so you really have to wonder at the flaws in the Reds’ execution that have them at 5-7.
The Reds have a small backline and it certainly doesn’t help that winger Suliasi Vunivalu rarely plays to his full 1.92m frame. Having hitman Hunter Paisami coming off the bench for a physical final 20 minutes will be a plus after his injury woes.
The Highlanders will have energy themselves to honour All Blacks legend Aaron Smith because the halfback is playing his last game in Dunedin. He has provided the most try assists (12) in the comp so it’s a great head-to-head with Reds ace Tate McDermott.
Tipping with the heart. Reds. Hooker Matt Faessler for an Anytime Try ($2.15 at Sportsbet) is good value as is McDermott ($3.20).
Reds +6.5
$1.89 (4 Units)
Melbourne Rebels v Western Force
Fri, May 26 AAMI Park, Melbourne 7.35pm (AEST)
A real flip of the coin game. The Force have beaten the Rebels on their last two visits to AAMI Park.
The men from the west will arrive with confidence after knocking off the Brumbies last round but consistency is not their stamp.
What has been consistent is the Rebels’ knack for putting up an average of four tries and 28 points per game. They have the superior score power which is the factor we favour in this game.
Carter Gordon is back from injury to run the show and the week off will have given him a chance to gather himself after a super-hectic season. The Rebels No.10 will be a key figure.
Likewise, backrow duo Richard Hardwick and Brad Wilkin, two standouts.
The Rebels have a real rhythm to their game. Unfortunately, they have shown little capacity to close out games in the final 20 minutes a la last weekend when 17-14 ahead of the Highlanders at the hour mark.
Mathematically, the Rebels can still sneak into the top eight from 11th but this has to be a win.
A fascinating game.
Rebels 13+
$2.50 (3 Units)
Crusaders v NSW Waratahs
Sat, May 27 Orangetheory Stadium, Christchurch 2.35pm (AEST)
The Crusaders have won 14 of their 15 home matches against the Waratahs since 1996, including 10 in a row.
Christchurch is just not a place where Aussie sides win.
The Waratahs have sent a far stronger side than they did to Auckland in April when the 55-21 hiding was predictable.
Resting Michael Hooper is the big selection for the ‘Tahs but starting Charlie Gamble at No.7 is the right spot for him to shine in a chequered season.
The Waratahs are starting with second-choice centres Mosese Tuipulotu and Joey Walton and that will be a target area for the Crusaders when they attack.
You’d really like to see Waratahs No.10 Ben Donaldson stand up in this game because these are the cauldrons he’ll face if he becomes a Test regular.
No one is expecting him to be Richie Mo’unga but let’s see how good Donaldson can be in this one.
Fergus Burke Anytime Try Scorer + Crusaders Win
$2.20 (4 Units)
ACT Brumbies v Chiefs
Sat, May 27 GIO Stadium, Canberra 7.35pm (AEST)
The Brumbies have a decent shot at knocking over the ladder leaders from NZ. They have won three of the past four times the teams have met so they have a track record.
The Reds showed something of a blueprint in their recent upset…tackle ferociously, pressure the Chiefs constantly and limit penalties. The Brumbies are well equipped on those fronts and have a better set piece to squeeze the Kiwis as well.
The Brumbies paid the price for having to field a below-strength side in Perth last round because of forced rest policies. They have most of their artillery back for this one.
Fullback Tom Wright has signed a new Rugby Australia deal so look for him as a try scorer.
We predicted Mark Nawaqanitawase would have a try-bounce out of his fresh contract deal last week and he got two. Same theory.
Brumbies to WIN
$2.40 (3 Units)
More Round 14 Betting Tips
Fijian Drua v Moana Pasifika
Sat, May 27 Churchill Park, Lautoka 12.05pm (AEST)
TIP: Moana Pasifika +13.5 - $1.91 at Ladbrokes
Blues v Hurricanes
Sat, May 27 Eden Park, Auckland 5.05pm (AEST)
TIP: Hurricanes to Win - $2.75 at Ladbrokes
