The Queensland Reds are suddenly the upset kings of Super Rugby Pacific.
Introduce us to anyone who picked the Reds to topple the Chiefs as 20-point underdogs last round?
On Friday night in Round 13, the Reds face another interesting match-up against the Blues with another upset possible in Brisbane.
Study carefully the weakened teams through workload resting policies aka the ACT Brumbies, Blues, Crusaders and Hurricanes.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Round 13 of Super Rugby Pacific.
2023 Super Rugby Pacific: Round 13 Preview & Betting Tips
Queensland Reds v Blues
Fri, May 19 Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 7.35pm (AEST)
Confidence is a wonderful thing in footy and the Reds are riding it after the huge 25-22 upset of the Chiefs in New Zealand.
The delve into why is interesting. The Reds ticked every one of their KPIs a la winning with superior kicking, better discipline with a halving of penalties conceded and so on.
They have got to do it again to beat the Blues as they did at Suncorp Stadium in 2019. Matches between the sides are traditionally close in Brisbane.
When asked about the Blues coming to Brisbane without All Blacks Caleb Clarke, Finlay Christie, Rieko Ioane and the suspended Dalton Papalii, Reds coach Brad Thorn countered with four big injury “outs”, Taniela Tupou, Jordan Petaia, Hunter Paisami and James O’Connor. That’s the game and the Blues have a deep squad, he said. True.
O’Connor has been ruled out of this one with concussion and his steadying at inside centre will be missed big time.
Rookie replacement Taj Annan is a fine prospect but not yet in O’Connor’s league for consistency and being able to put a man into a hole at the line. It also compromises Reds flyhalf Lawson Creighton.
No Christie for the Blues means the Reds have a distinct edge at halfback where Tate McDermott has made five line breaks and 29 tackle breaks, No.2 amongst all halfbacks this season.
The Blues carry the ball more than any other team so big defence is essential from the Reds if they are to dream big.
The Reds may pull off another win but taking a 10.5-point start (Ladbrokes) makes more sense.
Reds +10.5
$1.83 (4 Units)
Highlanders v Melbourne Rebels
Sat, May 20 Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, 2.35pm (AEST)
Here we have two 3-8 teams still in the hunt for a play-off spot. The loser can kiss the finals goodbye.
The Rebels have won three of their past four encounters against the Highlanders, including a win in Dunedin in 2020.
The Rebels average 29 points per game which shows their fizz in attack but giving up 38 per game has cost them again and again.
With flyhalf Carter Gordon out, the Rebels lose significant mojo because Reece Hodge is a journeyman No.10 by comparison despite his experience.
It’s hard to see the Rebels having the right punch without Gordon even against a basic Highlanders outfit bolstered significantly by the return of All Blacks halfback Aaron Smith.
The most dangerous player on the field is Highlanders winger Jona Nareki, a late starter to the year and ready to rack up a few tries. Anytime Try value here definitely.
Consider the Highlanders to lead at half-time at $1.93 giving away 4.5 points start (Sportsbet) to squeeze a little more value.
Highlanders -4.5 (Half-time Margin)
$1.90 (4 Units)
NSW Waratahs v Fijian Drua
Sat, May 20 Allianz Stadium, Sydney 7.35pm (AEST)
The Waratahs are on something of a roll with three straight wins and with plenty of improvement in them still.
Losing inside centre Lalakai Foketi is a big loss. He is such a rudder.
Flyhalf Ben Donaldson stepped up against the Rebels last round and must do so again with big Fijian bodies missiling at him all night.
It’s what he can expect from Fiji if he’s in the hot seat at the World Cup in September so Wallabies coach Eddie Jones will be watching with interest.
This is a gut-feel tip. How often do you see big games from players who have just settled their futures with a good contract? Often.
Waratahs winger Mark Nawaqanitawase re-signed with Rugby Australia this week and is due a two-try game. Gut feel not stats on this one.
Plenty of tackling ahead for the Waratahs and being ruthless enough to be boring with a good kicking game and lineout work to pressure the Fijians.
Three of the Fijians’ four wins this season have come at home in Fiji. They don’t travel that well and have averaged 28-point losses to the Waratahs in three match-ups on Australian soil.
They are a better side than that and are a settled outfit for this game.
Waratahs -11.5
$1.90 (4 Units)
Western Force v ACT Brumbies
Sat, May 20 HBF Park, Perth 10pm (AEST)
The Force have found a sweet spot at home where they have won five of their past six games.
The men from Canberra are rolling the dice by resting Wallabies. It’s a forced situation under Rugby Australia workload policy so no Rob Valetini, James Slipper, Lachlan Lonergan, Allan Alaalatoa, Nick Frost, Nic White, Len Ikitau and Tom Wright for this one.
That changes the whole dynamic of this game and puts at risk the Brumbies’ record of 14 straight wins over the Force.
Less attacking punch without Wright, less hammer without Valetini…the maths are pretty simple.
There is too much at stake for the Brumbies to be complacent and their line-up is still stout…win and they are a step closer to hosting a quarter-final and maybe even a semi-final.
Halfback Ryan Lonergan and No.10 Jack Debrezceni had starts as a partnership to open the season and are well up to this.
Still, the Force sit eighth and this really is a huge chance to lock down that position with a win.
If you want value, study all the Force options. A Force win with +8.5 points start at $1.83 (Ladbrokes) looks appealing.
The Force to win by 8-14 points at $9.75 shows what value exists.
Force to Win
$3.30 (4 Units)
More Round 13 Betting Tips
Moana Pasifika v Crusaders
Fri, May 19 Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland, 5.05pm (AEST)
TIP: Crusaders -9.5 pts - $1.84 at Ladbrokes
Chiefs v Hurricanes
Sat, May 20 FMG Stadium, Hamilton 5.05pm (AEST)
TIP: Chiefs -9.5 pts - $1.80 at Ladbrokes
