Round 11 pits the Queensland Reds and NSW Waratahs against each other in the most traditional of battles in Australian rugby in one of the least traditional of rugby locations...Townsville.
Neither side has beaten an opponent outside the bottom five clubs so both need to shake up their seasons and Saturday night is the perfect time to build on last-start victories.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Round 11 of Super Rugby Pacific.
2023 Super Rugby Pacific: Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Crusaders v Western Force
Sat, May 6 Orangetheory Stadium, Christchurch, 2.35pm (AEST)
The mercurial Will Jordan is playing his first game of the season at fullback for the Crusaders. He makes the attack purr so expect him to add plenty to a backline with Richie Mo’unga steering from No.10. He scores plenty of tries so dabble there.
The Crusaders have won 32 of their last 34 games against Australian sides. They just don’t let in Aussie teams at their Christchurch stronghold.
The Force have been forced into a big change with Max Burey coming in as the new flyhalf for injured Bryce Hegarty. Coach Simon Cron has plenty of confidence in Burey from the days when he coached him at the Northern Suburbs club in Sydney.
The Force have conceded 35 points per game on average this season and that’s just too leaky in defence against a sharp, sharp attack like that of the Crusaders.
Crusaders by 21-30
$3.40 (3 Units)
Queensland Reds v NSW Waratahs
Sat, May 6 Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville, 7.35pm (AEST)
Vital game for two sides running sixth and seventh and needing a victory. The Reds have won the past four interstate games. They have also struck some recent form with wins over Moana Pasifika and the Force since a frank mid-season truth session. James O’Connor playing at inside centre has made a big difference with his play-at-the-line style. It has taken some of the kinks out of the attack which was overdoing second wave plays.
O’Connor and Josh Flook will still have their hands full in midfield because the return to form of Waratahs centre Izaia Perese and partner Lalakai Foketi has been big for them.
The Reds have no Wallabies in their tight five which always marks them down. The Waratahs front-row is far from a dominant trio so the Reds stack up better in the scrum contest than in other games.
The backrow battle will be a beauty. Fraser McReight v Michael Hooper at openside flanker is the apprentice v the master but the gap keeps closing.
Reds No.8 Harry Wilson got overtaken by Langi Gleeson late last season. Gleeson makes big busts. Wilson contributes everywhere but a few tackle-breaking gallops would help his Wallabies chances immensely.
At No.6, Liam Wright is a smart, all-purpose toiler. He’s very good but so is the Waratah he’s marking. Kiwi Taleni Seu frequently pops a little offload for a try or line break and makes good runs.
Reds halfback Tate McDermott has strung together his three best games of the season since being left out of Eddie Jones’ Wallabies training squad. He’s the key for the Reds. Equally, NSW No.9 Jake Gordon has been in influential form since his own omission.
The Waratahs did it the hard way when beating the Highlanders at the death last round but there was confidence to take from that last-minute try.
Reds by a couple. You can take the $1.62 for a Reds win (Sportsbet) or look for something juicier.
Reds by 8-14
$5.10 (4 Units)
Melbourne Rebels v ACT Brumbies
Sun, May 6 AAMI Park, Melbourne, 2.35pm (AEST)
The Rebels have already upset the Waratahs and Reds this season so they feel confident against other Aussie sides. Playing at home will help and they get back two important players in centre Stacey Ili and backrower Richard Hardwick.
Both are valuable lifts in energy at just the right time for a side which has invested a lot of emotion and effort into the season.
The Rebels have a very settled team now and good strikepower. They’ll have a crack and take some risks against the Brumbies.
The Brumbies are a much better team with backrower Pete Samu and centre Len Ikitau back on the park. Should be a good clash but the Brumbies are due a flat game after setting high standards just about every week.
The Brumbies have won five of the last six times the teams have met so, on history, this is a win for the Canberra side. Sense it will be closer and the Rebels will have a shot at another upset. Can see merit in the $3.50 being offered (Sportsbet) about a Rebels upset.
Rebels +9.5
$1.90 (4 Units)
More Round 11 Betting Tips
Highlanders v Chiefs
Fri, May 5 Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, 5.05pm (AEDT)
TIP: Shaun Stevenson Anytime Try - $1.82 at Ladbrokes
Fijian Drua v Hurricanes
Sat, May 6 HCF Park, Suva 12.05pm (AEDT)
TIP: Fijian Drua +11.5 - $1.83 at Ladbrokes
Blues v Moana Pasifika
Sat, May 6 Eden Park, Auckland 5.05pm (AEDT)
TIP: Blues -25.5 - $1.87 at Ladbrokes
