After a bit of a quieter week on the PGA Tour, we are right back into the elevated events this week as we head to the famous Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Check out our full preview and betting tips for the $20million event below.
PGA Tour Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Tips
Thursday 2nd - Sunday 5th March
We largely stayed away from the lower tier Honda Classic last week, placing just small wagers on three different players in Sepp Straka, Billy Horcshel and Sungjae Im to win. We’ll be targeting a lot more as we preview the jam-packed field for the Arnold Palmer this weekend.
The Field
With the commitment made by the top players at the start of the season to play in all of the elevated events, the field is predictably packed with star power this weekend. All of the top 10 players in the world outside of Cam Smith will be in attendance, led by the likes of Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele.
Rahm leads the FedEx Cup standings by a fair margin over the trailing pack of Max Homa, Keegan Bradley and Seamus Power, all of whom will also be in attendance this week. The Spaniard will be hunting his fourth win in the PGA Tour season, an incredible feat considering we are yet to approach the half-way point.
Previous winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational who will be attempting to add another trophy to the case this week include Jason Day (2016), Rory McIlroy (2018), Francesco Molinari (2019), Tyrell Hatton (2020) and the defending champion, Scottie Scheffler. Tiger Woods, who made his return to golf a few weeks ago at the Genesis and who has won this tournament a ridiculous eight times, will unfortunately be taking the week off, likely targeting a start at THE PLAYERS next week.
The Course
Bay Hill Club & Lodge will once again host the Arnold Palmer Invitational as it has done every season since all the way back in 1979. At just over 7,400 yards, the course demands length off the tee, which is highlighted by the fact that so many bombers have won this tournament in recent history. Total driving is one of the most important categories heading into this week, but experience at Bay Hill as well as good course management is also vital.
The course has played extremely difficult in recent times, with the average winning score in the last three years being just -6.6 compared to the previous five years when it was -15.4.
Betting Tips
It may be a massive oversight but I’m looking past Jon Rahm this week. The No.1 player in the world maybe in one of the hottest streaks in the history of golf, having won three of his last five starts, but I just don’t think there is enough meat left on the bone for the big Spaniard at just $7.00.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($31/$1.80 Top 30 at Bet365)
Love the value of Fitzpatrick this week. The Englishman has made Bay Hill somewhat of a stomping ground in recent years despite the lack of a trophy. In his last four trips there he has racked up finishes of T2, T9, T10 and T9. Surprised to see him so far down the board here, even in a stacked field, because he has real win potential.
Jason Day ($26/$2.10 Top 20 at Bet365)
The Aussie has battled a horror injury run over the last few years but looks to finally be back in some decent form throughout the early stages of the PGA Tour 2023 season. He has racked up three top 10 finishes in a row at three pretty big tournaments in the Farmers Insurance, Phoenix Open and Genesis Invitational. He also has some great experience at Bay Hill, having won the tournament back in 2016. Like him for a cheeky top 20 place bet this week.
Gary Woodland ($67/$1.83 Top 40 at Bet365)
Woodland only has one start at Bay Hill over the last six seasons but it was last year, where he did finish T5 in a really solid performance. I think Woodland is rounding into form really nicely for the upcoming major season, having put a T9 in the books at the Genesis a few weeks ago. $67 some juicy odds for the former U.S. Open champ.
SAVERS
Rory McIlroy Top 10 ($2.15 at Bet365)
Scottie Scheffler Top 10 ($2.25 at Bet365)
Jon Rahm Top 9 ($1.95 at Bet365)
