Just the one game of NRL on Sunday for round 15, but it is an absolute cracker. Two teams fighting for a top 4 spot go head-to-head, as the Melbourne Storm host the Cronulla Sharks at AAMI Park. With the winner of this destined to be top 4 at the end of round 15, this is a massive contest on tap this Sunday.
NRL Round 15 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks
AAMI Park, Sunday 11th June, 4:05pm (AEST)
The Storm were embarrassed last week, being blown out by the Cowboys in Townsville. Considering how poor the Cowboys have been this season, the Storm have to be concerned with their level of play. The Cowboys managed to run for 450m more than the Storm, 4 more line-breaks, whilst the Storm missed a staggering 49 tackles, and made 11 errors. The Storm must be better this week, against a top 4 rival in the Sharks.
Speaking of the Sharks, they would be disappointed having come away from round 14 with a home loss to the Broncos. After trailing 6-2 early, the Broncos managed 3-straight tries to run away 20-12 winners. Both teams made over 2000 metres, with the Sharks likely disappointed with their missed tackle (45) and error (15) counts, which contributed to the loss.
The Storm opened 4.5-point favourites when this market opened, and the number hasn’t changed off the key of 4. My numbers also make the Storm a 4.5-point favourite, so I don’t see any value in the spread for this game.
The total opened 44.5, and looks to be coming down slowly, with 43.5 and 44.5 totals depending on where you shop. I make fair 44, so again I don’t see a great deal of value in the total.
Given the Storm lost last week in embarrassing fashion, and they are now backing up at home, I am quite confident that they will be fully up for this game against the Sharks. But I am also confident that the Sharks won’t be blown off the park. In the 7 wins this season for the Storm, they have won 6 of them by a margin of 1-12. Meanwhile the Sharks, in their 5 losses, have only lost once by 13 or more. With this information, I do like the Storm by 1-12 margin.
Given how much quality is across the park for both teams, I won’t be betting large on this one. Either team can win this game, and I don’t see a big enough edge to bet heavily into this game.
Melbourne Storm (1-12)
$3.10 (1 Unit)
