Just the one game on Sunday in round 13, as we see the Newcastle Knights host the Manly Sea Eagles. Both teams are on the outside looking in to the top 8, however a win here for Manly could see them vault into the top 8. Let’s delve in and try and find some value.
NRL Round 13 Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles
McDonald Jones Stadium, Sunday 28th May, 4:05pm (AEST)
The Knights were no match for the Sharks last weekend in Coffs Harbour, going down 26-6 to the men from the Shire. The Sharks probably had a bit more in the tank, as they made a whopping 16 errors through 80 minutes. The Knights shouldn’t be too disheartened, many teams have fallen victim to the Sharks attack this season, however they’ll need a much-improved performance this week to get the valuable 2 points.
The Sea Eagles are coming off a tremendous win over the Raiders last Sunday, spanking what was the hottest team in the NRL prior to last weekend 42-14 in the Nation’s Capital. Despite the scoreline, the stats showed the contest should have been a lot tighter, indicating the Raiders may not have been fully up for the game. Nevertheless, the Sea Eagles should take confidence out of this result.
State of Origin will have a big effect on how the Sea Eagles line up this week, with their two best players (Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans) missing due to selection. The Sea Eagles will also be without Jake Trbojevic, meaning arguably their 3 most influential and best players are out.
Conversely, the Knights received good news when the Origin teams were announced, with both Kalyn Ponga and Dane Gagai, Origin mainstays, missing selection. They do lose Tyson Frizell; however, they should be able to replace him easier than the Sea Eagles will be able to do with their Origin players.
The Knights were 6.5-point favourites on the lookahead line, and after Origin teams dropped, money has steadily come in on the home team, pushing the line to 10.5. This seems fair, as I’m sure the initial number had the Knights without Kalyn Ponga, and possibly Dane Gagai for this matchup.
The total has sat at 43.5 all week, and seems about right. It would be easy to look at the round 5 result between these teams and believe the over is the play, however they were two vastly different teams.
Speaking of the round 5 clash, these teams met in Wagga in round 5, and the result ended up 32-apiece, for now the only draw this season. It was a back-and-forth affair, with both defences seemingly unwilling to roll the sleeves up.
Given the uncertainty, I’m not willing to bet big in this game, or these types of weeks in general. Keep your capital for when you have more information. I get the feeling the Knights should be too good at home. They’re averaging 27.8 points per game at home this season, and as such I’ll back them to get by their team total in this one.
Knights (team total) over 25.5
$1.79 (1 Unit)
