The 26th instalment of the Australian Grand Prix at Albert Park goes ahead this weekend, with Red Bull and Max Verstappen heading the championship after back-to-back dominant 1-2’s in the opening rounds of the season. Verstappen, Perez, and Red Bull come to a place where they haven’t had much success of late, with the team looking for it’s first victory since 2011 (Vettel). Who can take the fight to the seemingly invincible Red Bull cars this weekend?
We were desperately unlucky last round, with our 3u Best Bet of Verstappen to win being handicapped by his reliability issues in qualifying. Despite starting 15th, Verstappen managed to finish 2nd, and he surely had the pace to win if he started from near the front of the grid. Our record now sits at 3-4 (-2.565u) in the early part of the season.
Formula 1 Betting Tips
Saudi Arabian Grand Prix Review
Red Bull quickly showed themselves as the fastest car at the Jeddah track, with Verstappen leading the way in all 3 practice sessions, before blitzing the field in Q1, going a full 0.5s quicker than his nearest rival. Then, as outlined above, reliability issues cost Verstappen in Q2, relegating him to 15th on the grid. Sergio Perez took pole, and looked good value to go back-to-back in Jeddah, after winning the race in 2022.
Fernando Alonso got a cracking start from 2nd on the grid, taking the lead from Sergio Perez into turn 1. Unfortunately, Alonso was deemed to be out of his starting box, and received a 5-second time penalty. Perez showed the pace of the Red Bull, breezing past Alonso at the start of lap 4. Apart from the early battle for the lead, the main entertainment early in the race came from Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen making their way through the field.
The race cruised towards the midway point, with the teams and drivers looking similar to Noah’s Ark. Lap 18 brought about a safety car, after Lance Stroll’s Aston Martin said no more, giving Verstappen a chance at winning as he came out in 4th after stops. It took Verstappen until lap 25 to climb to second, by which time Perez had a 6 second lead. Perez led his teammate home, with Verstappen taking the fastest lap on the final lap of the race, to keep his lead in the Championship by 1-point.
Australian Grand Prix Preview
It’s difficult to see anyone stopping the Red Bull’s this weekend, and the betting markets reflect that. Verstappen is currently listed at $1.30-$1.40 to win the race, which is probably still value in some respects, but I’m not here to put out $1.40 winners. I’m here to find some value!
Mercedes dominated the Australian Grand Prix during their close to decade of dominance in Formula 1, as they did in most places, but it was the Ferrari team who were often closest to the mark. Ferrari have a good history here, winning 8 races since the turn of the century. Looking a little more recently, Leclerc took Pole Position here last year, before leading from start to finish, eventually winning by over 20 seconds. Verstappen retired from 2nd place, but never seemed to have the pace of the Ferrari. So, at a big price, I like a nibble on Leclerc in this one.
The other non-Red Bull I like is Fernando Alonso. Alonso and Aston Martin have shown they are the second quickest car so far this season, and if this track doesn’t suit the Red Bull’s like we are hoping, maybe the veteran can pull off his first F1 victory since the 2013 Spanish Grand Prix, almost 10 years ago.
For my final selection, I can’t go an Australian Grand Prix without a tickle on the only Aussie driver on the grid. McLaren have a tremendous record at this venue, and were quick here last year, so let’s get our young Aussie Piastri home for his first Formula 1 point.
Other Bets
Charles Leclerc (Pole Position) - $12.50 @ Betfair (1u)
Fernando Alonso (Race Winner) - $11 @ Betfair (1u)
Fernando Alonso (Pole Position) - $11 @ NEDS (1u)
Oscar Piastri (Top 10 Finish) - $3.50 @ Ladbrokes (1u)
Charles Leclerc (Race Winner)
$26 (1 Unit)
