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AFL Round 8 Preview & Betting Tips
Port Adelaide vs Essendon
Sunday 1:10pm AEST, May 7th, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide continued their excellent record at Marvel Stadium, en route to knocking off the previously top of the ladder St Kilda. After conceding four of the first five goals of the game, the Power rallied in the final three quarters to come out seven point winners.
Xavier Duursma will be sidelined with a knee injury, however the Power welcome back Tom Jonas and Todd Marshall. Ollie Lord and Jase Burgoyne have been omitted, while Riley Bonner has been upgraded to the starting 22 after being the sub against St Kilda.
Essendon’s second game in five game days against a quality opponent showed in a slow start against Geelong, however a strong performance in the second half saw the final margin sit at a 28 point defeat. The scoreline sat at 38-0 after 21 minutes with Tom Hawkins on fire against an inexperienced defence, however a nine goal to six second half left the Bombers with some positives to take away.
Essendon have named Dyson Heppell and Alwyn Davey Jnr after they were managed off a five day break from Anzac Day, with Sam Durham (suspension), Massimo D’Ambrosio (omitted) and Will Snelling (omitted) making way.
Port Adelaide’s four game winning streak has been built on the back of their work at the coalface, ranking first in the league for tackles and third for clearances. The Power have been incredibly efficient over the last month recording 118 fewer disposals than their opponents and a combined ten less inside 50’s.
When Port Adelaide go inside 50 they capitalise, the Power are ranked 5th in the AFL for shots at goal per inside 50, and sixth for goals per inside 50. With Charlie Dixon, Jeremy Finlayson and Todd Marshall inside forward 50, Essendon’s undersized defence is going to have their work cut out for them again.
Essendon conceded 32 scores from 64 inside 50’s against Geelong, and if they can’t contain Port Adelaide’s key forwards, it’s going to be a long afternoon for the Bombers.
Port Adelaide have won five straight games against Essendon, by an average margin of 52 points. Four of the five wins have come by over 50 points, with the Bombers last win at the Adelaide Oval coming back in 2018.
If Port Adelaide can break even in the middle of the ground against the Bombers, they will be able to kick a winning score with how efficient they’ve been inside 50. The Power are in excellent form and love playing against Essendon, with the height advantage they’ll have inside 50, Port Adelaide will be too good for the Bombers.
Port Adelaide -13.5
$1.88 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Zak Butters 25+ Disposals: Zak Butters has been a huge part of Port’s resurgence, putting together a serious month. After a slow start to the season Butters has recorded 27, 32, 25 and 27 disposals in his last four games. Butters has recorded 25, 24 and 36 disposals in his last three games against Essendon.
Dylan Shiel 20+ Disposals: Dylan Shiel has been ultra consistent for the Bombers this season. Shiel is averaging 24 disposals per game, and has hit 20+ disposals in six of seven games this season. Despite attending a season low 20% CBA’s last week, Shiel still managed to pick up 22 disposals and kick 2 goals.
Jeremy Finlayson 2+ Goals: Jeremy Finlayson has been in excellent form in the last two weeks, kicking seven goals against the Eagles and Saints. Since joining Port Adelaide, Finlayson has loved playing against the Bombers, kicking six goals in three games.
Same Game Multi Odds: $3.40
