Sunday afternoon football kicks off at the MCG as Essendon and Geelong face off. The Cats are in red hot form, and will be looking to make it four wins in a row. Can the Bombers cause an upset? Or will Geelong make their way inside the top eight for the first time in 2023?
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AFL Round 7 Preview & Betting Tips
Essendon vs Geelong
Sunday 1:10pm AEST, April 30th, MCG
Essendon suffered a heartbreaking loss on ANZAC Day, giving up a 28 point three quarter like lead, as Collingwood kicked seven unanswered goals in the final quarter. The Bombers have to back up five days later against a Geelong outfit that demolished Sydney to the tune of 93 points.
Essendon have made four changes with Dyson Heppell, Alwyn Davey Jnr, Jayden Laverde and Jye Menzie out of the side. The Bombers have some handy inclusions with Zach Merrett, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Massimo D’Ambrosio and Nick Hind selected to take on the Cats.
Geelong have lost Cam Guthrie to a toe injury, with Jed Bews replacing the midfielder in the starting 22.
After starting the season 0-3, the Cats have peeled off three straight wins to move up to ninth on the ladder. There were concerns of a premiership hangover after their slow start, however Geelong have sent a statement over the past three weeks, with their forward line firing on all cylinders.
Geelong have scored 127, 136 and 130 points across their last three games, with Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins combining for 9, 8 and 10 goals in the last three games. Cameron and Hawkins will cause all sorts of nightmares for the Essendon defence who have just one recognised key defender playing this week, with Jayden Laverde injuring his shoulder on ANZAC Day.
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher will likely match up on Hawkins, however it leaves either Jordan Ridley or Jake Kelly to play on Cameron. Geelong are the highest scoring team in the competition, and the Coleman Medal leader will be fancying his chances of a big afternoon in front of the sticks.
Geelong have tormented Essendon, winning their past four games against the Bombers, by an average margin of 51 points, with three of those games resulting in wins by more than 40 points. With Essendon coming off a short turnaround against a red hot Geelong side, the line of -16.5 is very small for the Cats who have put up some huge scores over the last three weeks.
Geelong -16.5
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
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Jeremy Cameron 3+ Goals: Jeremy Cameron is putting together an incredible season, kicking 27 goals from six games. Cameron has produced returns of 2, 6, 3, 7, 4 and 5 goals, and is unstoppable at the moment. Pairing his form with Essendon’s lack of a second key defender to go with Cameron, the Coleman Medal leader will be a handful for the Bombers.
Mason Redman 25+ Disposals: With the ball likely to spend plenty of time in Essendon’s back half, Mason Redman will have plenty of opportunities to rack up the footy. With Jordan Ridley likely to match up on Cameron, Redman will have a lot of responsibility of playing as an intercept defender this week. Redman’s kick in numbers have been increasing week on week, taking five of Essendon’s twelve kick ins against Collingwood.
Will Setterfield 20+ Disposals: Setterfield has had an excellent start as a Bomber, with the former Blue averaging 22 disposals per game. Setterfield has had a massive role under Brad Scott, and has hit the 20+ disposal mark in five of his six games this season.
Same Game Multi Odds: $7
