AFL Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
GWS vs Hawthorn
Sunday 3:20pm AEST, April 16th, Norwood Oval
It’s been a busy week at the selection table for the Giants, headlined by the number one draft pick Aaron Cadman making his AFL debut. Xavier O’Halloran and James Peatling return to the Giants side as Jake Riccardi, Harry Rowston and Connor Stone have been dropped, while Brent Daniels has been managed.
After an impressive win over Adelaide in Round One, GWS have lost three straight games, with their last fortnight producing almost identical results. GWS lost to Essendon and Carlton by under 13 points, however the Bombers and Blues recorded thirteen and ten more scoring shots respectively.
The Giants have found ways to hang in both of those matches, however inaccurate kicking from their opponents has made the margins more respectable than what they should have been.
After a promising first half, Hawthorn were obliterated in the second half as Geelong romped to an 82 point victory. A fifteen goal to one second half saw a nine point Hawthorn lead get blown completely out of the water. The third quarter was the most damning, with Geelong kicking 10 goals, whilst Hawthorn could only manage one inside 50.
The Hawks have made four changes with Ned Long, Seamus Mitchell and Denver Grainger-Barras replacing Will Day (suspension), Finn Maginness (omitted), Jack Scrimshaw (toe) and Cameron Mackenzie (managed). Last week’s medical sub Chad Wingard has been upgraded to the starting 22.
The losses of Day and Mackenzie are massive for the Hawks, given they’ve been two of the strongest performers in the centre of the ground. Day has been Hawthorn’s leading disposal winner this season, averaging 24 disposals per game.
Hawthorn ranks 18th for points for, 18th in points against, 16th in contested possessions, 15th in clearances. The Hawks are struggling in every important metric, and it’s no surprise they sit at the bottom of the ladder.
GWS have struggled this season, however they haven’t had any troubles finding the footy. The Giants rank fourth in the league for disposals, with their ability to maintain possession, preventing them from getting blown out in the last two weeks. If GWS can turn that possession control into winning the territory battle, it will go a long way toward winning.
Although the Giants haven’t been impressive this season, the Hawks have been atrocious. Hawthorn’s three losses have come by margins of 59, 81 and 82 points, a clear result of their off-season moves, which have not been geared towards winning games in 2023.
GWS -14.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
Tom Green 30+ Disposals: Although the Giants have struggled this season, Tom Green has been in career best form. The young star has averaged 33 disposals per game across the first month of the season, hitting the 30+ disposal mark in three of the four games this season.
James Sicily 25+ Disposals: Sicily had a quiet performance against the Cats, only managing 14 disposals as Geelong ran riot. The Hawthorn skipper had record 30, 28 and 25 disposal games in the opening three games of the season. As always, there will be plenty of ball inside the Hawks defensive 50, however against a far less potent attacking side, Sicily should bounce back this week.
Fergus Greene Anytime Goalscorer: Fergus Greene has been a bright spark in a dark month for the Hawks, with the former Bulldog relishing in his second chance at the top level. Greene has kicked 5 goals this season, including 2 goals in each of his last two games.
Same Game Multi odds - $4.00
