AFL Round 13 Preview & Betting Tips
Essendon vs North Melbourne
Sunday 7:15pm AEST, June 11th, MCG
Carlton suffered their fifth straight loss in a seventeen point defeat against Melbourne in Round 12. The Blues were in the game late largely due to Melbourne’s inefficiency inside forward 50, however Carlton would be happy with how they defended against a mountain of inside 50’s.
Essendon picked up their third consecutive win in a thrilling encounter against North Melbourne last Sunday, with a Massimo D’Ambrosio snap giving the Bombers a six point win. It wasn’t a fantastic performance by Essendon, however they once again kicked over 100 points with a makeshift forward line.
The Blues have swung plenty of changes at selection with Jack Martin, Marc Pittonet, Ed Curnow returning to the side. Jack Silvagni, Zac Fisher, Lochie O’Brien and Paddy Dow have been omitted from the 23 that took to the field against Melbourne..
Essendon have received a huge boost with Peter Wright set to play his first game of the season after injuring his shoulder on the eve of Round 1. Dylan Shiel will miss for the third time in the last four weeks through injury, while Andrew Phillips has been dropped.
Carlton have had the wood over Essendon, winning four of their last five games against the Bombers. Despite their recent struggles, Carlton matches up incredibly well against Essendon through the midfield and their forward fifty.
Harry McKay and Charlie Cunrow have a major size advantage against Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and Jayden Laverde, with the Bombers struggling to contain opposing key forwards in 2023.
Cameron Zurhaar (4), Oscar Allen (4), Joe Daniher (6), and Tom Hawkins (8) have all gotten a hold of the Essendon defence in the last six weeks. McKay and Curnow have faced plenty of criticism over their conversion in the past weeks, however they’re getting consistent shots at goal each week, eventually they will convert.
With Tom De Koning set to play forward with Pittonet back in the lineup, the Essendon defence will be stretched to the limit.
Essendon are once again without Darcy Parish, Dylan Shiel and Will Setterfield meaning Carlton are going to have a serious height and experience advantage in the midfield. If the Blues dominate out of the centre, it’s going to be a difficult night for their defence.
Carlton come into this match as slight underdogs given their lack of form, however with their recent form against Essendon, there should be plenty of confidence in the Blues putting an end to their losing streak.
Same Game Multi
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Adam Cerra 25+ Disposals: Adam Cerra has been Carlton’s most consistent midfielder this season, averaging 27 disposals per game. Cerra has passed the 25+ disposal mark in five of his last seven games, averaging 30 disposals per game across the last seven weeks.
Harry McKay 2+ Goals: After a tough week against Sydney, Harry McKay bounced back against Melbourne, slotting three goals. McKay was a major presence in the Blues forward line, keeping them in the game against Melbourne. Despite struggling to convert, McKay has had 4, 3 and 5 scoring shots in his last three games. McKay has returns of 3 and 4 goals from his last two outings against Essendon.
Zach Merrett 30+ Disposals: In the middle of an injury crisis in Essendon’s midfield, captain Zach Merrett has carried the Bombers with some serious performances. Merrett has recorded 39, 32 and 34 disposals across the last three weeks, and is averaging 29 disposals per game in 2023.
Same Game Multi Odds: $3.80
