Round 12 begins on Friday night with a battle between two clubs who will be desperate to return to the winners list. It’s Melbourne vs Carlton at the MCG in what’s the first of eight games this weekend. As always, we preview the match and bring you our best bet and Same Game Multi.
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AFL Round 12 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Carlton
Friday 7:50pm AEST, June 2nd, MCG
Tensions are mounting in the Carlton camp as they prepare to face another big test in Round 12 when they take on Melbourne at the MCG on Friday night.
The Blues started the season in fine form with three wins and a draw in their first four outings, but have since tasted success only once from their last seven starts.
Last weekend’s loss against the Swans was probably the most frustrating of the lot, particularly for die-hard supporters who are pleading for change.
The constant bombing of the ball high and long into their forward line is a method that simply isn’t bearing fruit.
However, even when the Carlton midfielders and half backs do manage to find a target inside forward 50, you have the likes of Harry McKay kicking for goal and he couldn’t hit a barn door on current form.
Meanwhile, Melbourne are going through a slump themselves and come into Round 12 on a two-game slide.
They lost a tough one against the Power at Adelaide Oval a fortnight ago, and couldn’t bounce back at home against the Dockers last start.
Unlike the Blues, the Demons struggles seem to be more intensity and effort based compared to their system letting them down. They were clearly the less aggressive and determined team in their match last weekend, so it’ll be interesting to see how they come out in the first quarter on Friday night.
These teams haven’t faced each other a whole lot in recent years, facing off just once per season across the past five.
Their last two meetings have both been at the MCG and both have seen the total points go under the line for Friday night’s match which is currently 164.5 points.
Unders in the total points market has also been a trend at this ground in recent weeks, with each of the last four matches falling under the respective points line.
Further, Carlton have scored just 59, 57, and 51 points in their last three matches, while Melbourne have scored 76 and 72 in their last two, which is low comparative to their season average.
All signs lead towards a low-scoring game to kick off Round 12, and I’m keen to have a decent crack at it to hopefully build some bank to begin a huge weekend of sport.
Under 164.5 Points
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Christian Petracca 25+ Disposals – Even more is asked of Trac in Clarry’s absence and he stepped it up disposal-wise last weekend. I expect him to notch up at least 25 again here.
Sam Docherty 25+ Disposals – Has put together a fantastic month of football since returning from injury. Gets plenty of cheap ball as well which helps tick over his tally.
Bailey Fritsch 2+ Goals – Loves the big stage and loves Friday night footy. He’s kicked 2+ goals in each of his last Friday night matches.
Jacob Van Rooyen 1+ Goals – Has kicked a goal in all nine matches of his young career. Happy to throw him in my SGM for some added value.
Same Game Multi odds: $3.50
