The final game on Saturday’s AFL slate sees the Suns taking on the Crows in the top end. Both clubs will be riding high after wins against top eight opponents in Round 11, with both sides being separated by just one game on the ladder, it’s a big clash in Darwin!
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AFL Round 12 Preview & Betting Tips
Gold Coast vs Adelaide
Saturday 7:30pm AEST, June 3rd, TIO Stadium
Gold Coast upset an inform Western Bulldogs outfit in Darwin last weekend, with the win keeping the Suns within a game from the top eight. The Suns have now won three consecutive games at TIO Stadium, and will have a significant advantage given these conditions are quite foreign for the Crows.
Adelaide picked up their biggest scalp of the season in Round 11, knocking off Brisbane at the Adelaide Oval. The Crows defense dug deep with the Lions recording nineteen more inside 50’s, however the result could have looked a lot different if Brisbane converted better in front of goal, kicking 9.18.
These two sides have very similar statistical profiles, building their games off hard working midfielders and being efficient inside forward 50.
Adelaide ranks 3rd in the AFL for tackles, 4th in contested possessions, 5th in clearances, and number one in the competition for scores per inside 50. Gold Coast ranks 3rd for contested possessions, 3rd in clearances and sixth for scores per inside 50.
The heat, humidity and dew in Darwin give the Suns a big advantage given how the conditions do replicate what they regularly face at Heritage Bank Stadium. Adelaide’s last two fixtures away against Gold Coast saw the Crows lose by 43 and 53 points.
This game won’t be free flowing, so being efficient when going inside 50 is going to be crucial. Both sides were beaten convincingly in the inside 50 count last week, however the Crows scored from 44.7% of their inside 50’s and the Suns scored from 37.5% of their inside 50’s.
The midfield battle between Rowell, Anderson, Laird and Dawson will be entertaining, however Jarrod Witts looms as the player to swing the midfield battle if he gains ascendancy in the ruck. Witts ranks second in the league for hitouts and has recorded 51, 51 and 48 hitouts in his last three games.
If Witts can give his midfield first use to his midfield allowing Gold Coast to win the clearance battle, it will go a long way to the Suns winning this game. In four of Adelaide’s five losses this season, the Crows have lost the clearances.
Gold Coast come into this fixture with a better stretch of form winning four of their last six games, and given their familiarity with the conditions they will be too good for Adelaide. Adelaide’s potent forwardline will keep the game close, so the 1-39 market is the way to go in this fixture.
Gold Coast 1-39
$2.50 (1.5 Units)
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Rory Laird 30+ Disposals: Slippery humid conditions will provide plenty of repeat stoppages at a big battle at the contest, which will suit Laird perfectly. Laird is averaging 28 disposals per game this season, and recorded 42 disposals the last time he played the Suns.
Bailey Humphrey 20+ Disposals: The pick 6 from the 2022 AFL draft is beginning to find his feet at AFL level, averaging 21 disposals per game across his last three weeks. Humphrey has recorded 20, 26 and 19 disposals in his last three games.
Izak Rankine 2+ Goals: Izak Rankine has hit the ground running after moving back home to Adelaide during last season’s trade period. Rankine has kicked 21 goals this season, the third most of any small forward in the competition, and has kicked multiple goals in three of his last four games. Rankine will be eager to put in a big performance against his former side.
Same Game Multi Odds: $4.70
