Second up on Sunday in Round 11 is Collingwood vs North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium. It certainly looks like a one-sided fixture on paper, so let’s see if we can find any value in the betting markets.
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AFL Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Collingwood vs North Melbourne
Sunday 3:20pm AEST, May 28th, Marvel Stadium
Two sides on opposite ends of the ladder will lock horns in this one, with Collingwood sitting in 1st and North Melbourne in 17th.
The Magpies haven’t put a foot wrong in 2023 aside from their Round 4 defeat away against Brisbane, so to say they’re travelling well would be a great understatement.
The Pies are flying in all facets of the game and have become the outright favourites for the premiership. Their game style seems to stand up in all playing conditions, although they’re clearly at their absolute best at home at the MCG.
On the other hand, the Kangaroos are winless since starting the season 2-0, and their current eight-game losing streak is equal worst in the competition with West Coast coming into Round 11.
The contrasts between these sides continue in the coaching box, with Craig Macrae now an established head coach of the black and white, while North’s Brett Ratten, although extremely experienced at this level, is only in his second game leading North in his caretaker role in Alistair Clarkson’s absence.
Ratten almost got his tenure at North off to a flyer when he had his troops in a near unassailable position late in the game against Sydney last weekend, but a bizarre interchange infringement in the dying moments saw his side suffer another heartbreaking defeat.
It’ll be interesting to see the approach the Kangaroos take against one of the premier sides in the competition. Although I believe it’s relatively safe to assume they’ll be in damage limitation mode from the outset; something similar to their style against the Saints at the same venue a couple of weeks ago.
If that is the case, then the unders in the total points market automatically draws my attention. The Kangaroos have the vast majority of their experienced players in the back half of the field, so they can possess the ball well back there at times.
With that said, I’m hesitant to be too bullish on the unders here simply due to the sheer scoring power the Magpies possess. I’ll be taking the unders for a single unit as a result.
Under 169.5 Points
$1.90 (1 Unit)
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Darcy Cameron 1+ Goals – Returned from injury last weekend and played a lot more forward than ruck which was to be expected. I can see him playing a near 50-50 split on Sunday which will give him a good chance of hitting the scoreboard.
Jack Ziebell 25+ Disposals – Often takes the kick-ins and also gets a lot of easy sideways ball in defence. I expect the ball to be living down that end of the ground in this one, so JZ should see an uptick in his disposal numbers.
Same Game Multi odds: $3.90
