Friday Night football in round 8 will see the rampaging Penrith Panthers (7-0) head north to take on the struggling Gold Coast Titans (2-5), in a match that on the surface threatens to be another one-sided drubbing. The Titans are on a 3-game losing streak, with their last win being an 8-6 victory over the Wests Tigers.
Last week was the culmination of this poor form, looking decidedly average against the Cowboys in Townsville, who comprehensively defeated the Titans 30-4. The Panthers on the other hand have gone from strength to strength. After a sluggish first 3 weeks without Cleary, where they still went 3-0, the Panthers have been building towards peak form and absolutely dominated the Raiders last week, particularly defensively. In what looks like a one-sided affair, let’s dive in to see where the value lies.
As always, stay tuned throughout the 2022 NRL season to get the best betting value when taking on the bookies, with our NRL Tips page previewing all the NRL matches in 2022.
Gold Coast Titans vs Penrith Panthers
Cbus Super Stadium, Friday 29th April, 6:00pm (AEST)
Squads
Gold Coast Titans
1. AJ Brimson 2. Phillip Sami 3. Brian Kelly 4. Patrick Herbert 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Will Smith 7. Toby Sexton 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Erin Clark 10. Isaac Liu 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui. INTERCHANGE: 14. Tanah Boyd 15. Sam Lisone 16. Herman Ese’ese 17. Kevin Proctor. RESERVES: 18. Jamayne Isaako 19. Jarrod Wallace 20. Sam McIntyre 21. Esan Marsters 22. Paul Turner 23. Corey Thompson 24. Jayden Campbell
Penrith Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Charlie Staines 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Taylan May 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Matt Eisenhuth 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo. INTERCHANGE: 14. Soni Luke 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeman Salmon. RESERVES: 18. Robert Jennings 19. Chris Smith 20. J’maine Hopgood 21. Lindsay Smith 22. Mitch Kenny 23. Christian Crichton 24. Sean O’Sullivan
Match Preview
After a fun week last week with best bets, going 3-0 (+5.46u), we look to keep the momentum going in Round 8. First up, a bet that is going to look rough, but one that I’ll try and explain in this preview.
The Panthers have been brilliant so far this year, and a Panthers v Storm Grand Final is looking increasingly likely. These two sides are separating themselves from the chasing pack, with the Panthers only having one game so far this season where they have won by less than 14 points. The Storm, meanwhile, put 70 points on the Warriors last week and look as slick as ever.
The Titans, conversely, have taken a massive backwards step so far this season. After making the Top 8 last season, there were plenty predicting the Titans would build on that in 2022, although if you read our season preview you would know we were of the opinion the Titans would go backwards this year. After one possession games in rounds 1 through 5 saw the Titans at 2-3, they have since lost to Manly (26-18) and the Cowboys (30-4). It seems to be panic stations at the Titans, with Coach Justin Holbrook under pressure and this young squad looking a little lost.
Statistically speaking, the Panthers have been utterly dominant. They top the league in all metre categories in attack, and concede the least metres, post contact metres, metres per set and points per game. Their defence was ruthless last week, not conceding a tackle in their own half for the entire second half, until the Raiders got a late penalty and got a few tackles inside the Panthers half at the very end of the game.
The Titan’s attack has been middle of the pack, but it is their defence that has struggled. One interesting statistic is the Titans give up the most metres per set, and the most kick return metres. This does not bode well against the Panthers, with Dylan Edwards so good at getting their sets off to a great start on kick returns.
Despite all this, my best bet for this game is to back the Titans with a 20-point head start. The concern is that the levels of the haves and have nots have changed over the past month, however the Titans are only 3 weeks removed from closing 7.5-point underdogs at home to the Eels. I’m sorry but I can’t get to the Panthers being 12.5-points better than the Eels on a neutral and I think the market has gone too far after the Panthers’ impressive display last week.
With Brimson at fullback for the Titans I see them scoring 2-3 tries, so Titans over 11.5 is also a solid bet.
The Panthers could win this by 50, but this is purely a numbers bet, and I can’t get to the Panthers at -20. The early Friday game gives me more confidence, with only one away team winning by 20+ in the early Friday game since the beginning of 2021.
Alternate Bet:
Titans Over 11.5 Points ($1.88 at Ladbrokes)
Titans +20
$2.00 (1 Unit)
