The first of two elimination finals for week 1 takes place at AAMI Park, as the 5th place Melbourne Storm host the 8th place Canberra Raiders. The Storm are in an unfamiliar position heading into this finals series, with their first finish outside the top 4 since 2014. Meanwhile, the Raiders have finished the season with a wet sail, winning 8 of their past 10 games, including their last 4 in a row. This should be a cracker in Melbourne, with the winner progressing to take on the loser of the Panthers/Eels match up, and the loser going home.
Also, make sure to check out our NRL Tips page to find our best bets for every match in the 2022 finals!
Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders Preview & Betting Tips
AAMI Park, Saturday 10th September, 5:40pm (AEST)
Squads
Melbourne Storm
1. Nick Meaney 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Marion Seve 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Harry Grant 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenny Bromwich 13. Josh King. INTERCHANGE: 14. Brandon Smith 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Trent Loiero 17. Chris Lewis. RESERVES: 18. Young Tonumaipea 19. Jordan Grant 20. Tepai Moeroa 21. Cooper Johns 22. Grant Anderson
Canberra Raiders
1. Xavier Savage 2. Nick Cotric 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Adam Elliott. INTERCHANGE: 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Corey Horsburgh 17. Corey Harawira-Naera. RESERVES: 18. Albert Hopoate 19. Ata Mariota 20. Matt Frawley 21. Peter Hola 22. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
Match Preview
The Raiders have a remarkable record against the Storm at AAMI Park, better than anyone else in the NRL, and this narrative has been playing out in the media all week. The market has taken no notice, with the Storm opening at -5.5 and moving out to -8.5 at most books at the time of writing. And whilst the Raiders form line over the past couple of months looks impressive, dig a little deeper and there are big question marks.
Yes, they have won 7 of their 8 matches since their bye in round 17, however wins over the Tigers, Sea Eagles, Knights, Dragons, Titans and Warriors doesn’t spark all that much interest from me. Their two other results, a 26-6 loss at home to the Panthers who were missing Cleary, Luai and Kikau and a 20-16 win at AAMI Park against the Storm are more interesting. The loss to the Panthers shows the Raiders are probably just making up the numbers this finals series, and have no realistic hope of winning the Premiership. The win against the Storm, in my opinion, shows they can get it done when things fall their way. The Storm lost fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen 20 minutes into this match, and without this loss and the subsequent move for Tyran Wishart to deputise at fullback, the Storm surely would have won comfortably.
In a game with so much on the line, I trust the Storm and Craig Bellamy to come prepared and be too clinical for the Raiders. The Raiders have not had a preparation any team wants coming into the finals, while the Storm have been tuning up against some of the best teams in the competition over the past month. Whilst the Raiders might keep this close for a half, the class of Cam Munster and Jahrome Hughes will ultimately prove too much, consigning the Raiders to being the first club eliminated from the finals series.
Prop Bet: Under 43.5 - $1.90 @ Palmerbet
Melbourne Storm (-8)
$2 (2 Units)
