We are back at a major tournament with ranking points back on the line, as we return to the hard courts of Flushing Meadows, New York to undertake the US Open. It shapes as a fairly warm and humid start to the tournament, which sees the Russian and Belarussian men’s players returning to the grand slam field after being banned from Wimbledon.
There is a notable exception in the men’s draw however, as Novak Djokovic finds himself missing another major tournament. We also have no Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal comes into the tournament off very little tennis since his injury struggles at Wimbledon.
Let’s take a look at the draw quarter by quarter to see if we can find any value, before locking in a couple of outright selections.
Also, be sure to check out Ace’s best bets for the women’s draw right here!
Men’s US Open Futures Betting Tips
1st Quarter
This section of the draw is largely dominated by a couple of the bigger names in world number 1 Daniil Medvedev and Nick Kyrgios, followed by Felix Auger Aliassime and Pablo Carreno Busta. I don’t see Medvedev as a value price in the quarter winner market and do feel as though were he to make it to the pointy end of the tournament, better prices are available for making the final and winning the tournament. The money has come for Kyrgios in the last couple of months, which is understandable given his form, however I do have some slight concerns over the ability for his knee, and himself in general, to hold up on the hardcourts in the warm and humid conditions forecast. Kyrgios and Medvedev find themselves in the top part of this section and would meet in the 4th round, so it may be worth looking to the bottom part of this section in search of some better value capable of making a run to the second week. For mine, I’d split stake across Carreno-Busta and De Minaur, as FAA and even Karen Khachanov are a little too streaky for my liking.
Also Backing: De Minaur to Win 1st Quarter at $21 at Bet365 (0.2 Units)
Carreno Busta to Win 1st Quarter
$16 (0.25 Units)
2nd Quarter
At the top of the betting market in this quarter is Stefanos Tsitsipas, however this section appears to be littered with names that are able to give him a little bit of grief on his current form. The layout of this section is a little similar to that of the first quarter. The top half of this section also has Matteo Berrettini and even Maxime Cressy, who could cause some trouble for Tsitsipas given he isn’t the strongest on the return of serve compared to most in the Top 10. That leads me to the bottom half, where the appear lies mostly with Taylor Fritz at the current prices. It appears to be a favourable first couple of rounds which should allow the American to build into the fortnight, making him one to watch.
Fritz to Win Quarter 2
$5 (0.4 Units)
3rd Quarter
This appears to be a very even section of the draw. It’s Carlos Alcaraz and Hubert Hurkacz at the bookends of the draw, with Marin Cilic and Jannik Sinner in the middle. The first name that obviously appeals is Alcaraz, however his draw isn’t overly favourable. To reach the quarter final he is likely to have to face on of Jenson Brooksby or recent Masters 1000 winner Borna Coric, then Marin Cilic or Dan Evans in the fourth round. They are players that are likely to be on the challenging side for Alcaraz, especially over the best of 5 set format with Alcaraz coming off a couple of indifferent tournaments with recent losses to Jannik Sinner, Tommy Paul and Cameron Norrie. As a result, the player that presents as best value for mine in this section is in fact Sinner. He appears to be playing a slightly smarter schedule this year and given significant boosts this year to his hold percentages, and first serve points won percentages, all signs point to an improved output from Sinner here. The recent addition of Darren Cahill to his team doesn’t seem to have hurt him either.
Sinner to Win 3rd Quarter
$4.50 (0.5 Units)
4th Quarter
This quarter presents as a fascinating section of the draw, largely because Rafael Nadal is so short in the market. Whilst it is fair given the tennis he has produced at times this year under major adversity, I don’t quite see the same parallels in his form and fitness here as we did when he won the Australian Open at the start of the year. There were some form and fitness concerns heading into Melbourne, however Nadal was able to overcome that and gain some valuable time on court by winning one of the lead-up tournaments. This hasn’t been the case this time, so a fortnight in warm and humid conditions becomes a trickier prospect, and I am happy to look elsewhere in the market. The two names at the current prices that are most appealing are Cameron Norrie and even Frances Tiafoe. Both have games that will stack up in the conditions, and the other players towards the top of the market all will face each other a little earlier in the tournament. Of the rest, Miomir Kecmanovic is intriguing, but perhaps a little too close to Nadal early.
Also Backing: Tiafoe to Win 4th Quarter - $29 at Bet365 (0.2 Units)
Norrie to Win 4th quarter
$7 (0.4 Units)
Outright
My top pick for the tournament overall remains Daniil Medvedev, however there are a number of quarter and outright selections that do appear to be value across different books, including Medvedev to progress further than Nadal
Other Bets:
0.2 Units Fritz to Win Outright at $21 at TAB
1 Unit Daniil Medvedev to go further than Rafael Nadal at $1.66 at Bet365
0.1 Unit Tiafoe to be a Finalist at $126 at TAB
0.25 Units Norrie to be a Finalist at $17 at TAB
0.3 Units Sinner to be a Finalist at $8 at TAB
Medvedev to Win Outright
$3.35 (0.8 Units)
