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2022 AFL Round 21: Geelong vs St Kilda Preview & Betting Tips

August 5th 2022, 11:47am, By: Jack Tobin

Cats vs Saints Betting Tips

GMHBA Stadium plays host to a Saturday night blockbuster as Geelong hosts St Kilda in a top eight clash. The Saints need a win to stay in the top eight, while the Cats will be looking for an eleventh straight win!

Check out our free preview below, and be sure to head to our AFL Tips page for previews on every game of Round 21.

Geelong vs St Kilda Betting Tips

GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 6th August, 7:25pm (AEST)

Geelong

Injuries: Shaun Higgins, Flynn Kroeger, Sam Menegola, Shannon Neale, Gary Rohan, Rhys Stanley, Cooper Whyte

Rhys Stanley returns to the Geelong side who have surprisingly left Jonathon Ceglar in the side, but given Geelong’s history of late changes don’t be surprised if Ceglar is a late omission - especially with Zach Tuohey in the emergencies after coming out of health & safety protocols. Joel Selwood has been managed while Gary Rohan will miss through concussion protocols with last week’s medi-sub Brandan Pafitt, upgraded to the starting 22.

After a slow start that saw them concede the first four goals of the game, the Cats kicked eight goals to none in the third quarter to cruise to a 28 point victory. Geelong sit a game clear at the top of the ladder and have won ten straight games. With their final three games coming against the Saints, Suns and Eagles, and two of those games in Geelong - it’s difficult to see the Cats not finishing the home and away season with thirteen consecutive wins.

Geelong are playing a complete brand of football, ranking second in attack (94 points per game) and third in defence (69 points per game). The Cats also rank first for inside 50’s and fifth for tackles, highlighting their improved game style that has focused on territory rather than control.

St Kilda

Injuries: Jack Billings, Nick Coffield, Jade Gresham, Jack Hayes, Dougal Howard, Daniel McKenzie, Paddy Ryder

There’s only one change to the St Kilda side that defeated Hawthorn last week with Dougal Howard coming in for Jarrod Lienert, giving the Saints some much needed height in defence. Unused medi-sub Ryan Byrnes has also been omitted.

The Saints were utterly dominant for two and a half quarters against Hawthorn last week, before conceding eight of the last ten goals to win by just twelve points. Rowan Marshall put together a remarkable performance picking up 35 hitouts, 30 disposals and 7 clearances in a dominant best on ground performance.  

Although St Kilda sit in eighth with their destiny in their own hands, It’s going to be a near impossible task to make finals given their remaining games are against Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney. The Saints are 3-5 against the top eight this season and are going to need to turn that round if they are to feature in September.

Match Prediction

Geelong have won eleven of their last fourteen games against St Kilda, and have won ten in a row against the Saints at GMHBA Stadium. The last time St Kilda defeated the Cats in Geelong, was back in 1999. During the ten game winning streak at GMHBA Stadium, the Cats have had an average winning margin of 48 points with three wins by over 95 points. 

The Saints form in the second half of the season has been shaky, and coming up against a red hot Geelong outfit at GMHBA Stadium it could be a seriously tough outing for St Kilda. The Cats are 6-1 in Geelong this season, with an average winning margin of 42 points. Geelong gave up a four goal headstart last week and still won by 28 points, so with a strong start this week, the Cats should be able to cover the line against a less talented opposition.

Geelong -34.5

$1.90 (1.5 Units)

Prop Bets

Tom Stewart has been utterly dominant at Kardinia Park this season, averaging 32 disposals per game including two 40 disposal outings. Stewart had 22 disposals on return from suspension last week and should only continue to get better with some continuity. Stewart had 27 touches against the Saints when the two sides met in Round 9.

Tom Stewart 25+ Disposals, $1.57 with Ladbrokes

Tom Hawkins loves playing against the Saints, with returns of 4, 3, 2 and 5 goals in his last four games against St Kilda. Hawkins has kicked 15 goals in his last four games to take his season tally to 51, the third most in the AFL. Hawkins has 20 goals from seven games at GMHBA Stadium this season, and looks set for a big outing against the Saints.  

Tom Hawkins 3+ Goals, $1.98 with Ladbrokes

After spending six weeks on the sidelines during the middle of the season, Patrick Dangerfield is beginning to hit his stride at the right time of the season. Outside of a quiet performance against the Power in Round 19, Dangerfield has had an excellent last four weeks, which has come on the back of increased centre bounce attendances. In the last four weeks he has had performances of 31 disposals (14 CBA’s), 22 disposals (13 CBA’s) and 26 Disposals (17 CBA’s). Dangerfield is being utilised as a dominant centre clearance player, and it’s paying dividends for the Cats. 

Patrick Dangerfield 25+ Disposals, $2.05 with Ladbrokes

 

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