The MCG plays host to the match of the round on Saturday night, as Geelong take on Carlton. The Cats will be out to keep top spot, while the Blues will be looking to break into the top four.
Jack Tobin is here with a preview for Saturday night’s blockbuster, and make sure to check out our AFL Round 18 tips page for previews on every game this round.
Carlton vs Geelong Preview & Betting Tips
MCG, Saturday 16th July, 7:25pm AEST
Carlton
Injuries: Jordan Boyd, David Cunningham, Caleb Marchbank, Jack Martin, Oscar McDonald, Mitch McGovern, Jack Newnes, Matt Owies, Luke Parks, Sam Philp, Marc Pittonet, Zac Williams
Carlton have made two changes from their side that took care of West Coast last week. Mid-season draft pick Will Hayes has been upgraded from the medi-sub to start his first game for the Blues, and Liam Stocker has been recalled to the senior side after a 30 disposal performance in the VFL. Lochie O’Brien and Josh Honey make way for Hayes and Stocker.
The Blues produced an excellent offensive performance in a 63 point win against Eagles. Dominant first and fourth quarters bookended the performance, kicking 5 goals to no score in the first quarter and seven goals to no score in the last quarter. Carlton conceded seven goals in the second quarter, highlighting the vulnerability they do have in defence.
If Carlton are to knock off the ladder leaders, Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow are going to need to produce a special performance. Carlton ranks sixth in the AFL for points per game (89), while Geelong are ranked third (93). It’s going to be tough for the Blues defence to contain Hawkins and Cameron, so it’s crucial to the Blues chances of winning this game that McKay and Curnow go big.
Geelong
Injuries: Toby Conway, Shaun Higgins, Flynn Kroeger, Cooper Stephens, Tom Stewart (suspension)
The Cats have only one change from the 22 that defeated Melbourne with Jake Kolodjashnij returning from concussion protocols, while Jed Bews has been rested. Geelong are on top of the ladder for the first since Round One on the back of seven straight wins.
Geelong put together an outstanding performance in a top of the table clash against Melbourne last week, dismantling the Demons in a way we haven’t seen in the last two years. The Cats completely dominated the clearance game winning the clearances by 18 despite losing the hitouts by 13. Geelong completely nullified Max Gawn and Luke Jackson’s influence on the game, and the 29 point margin flattered the Demons given the Cats kicked 12.19.
Another impressive aspect of the victory was the fact the Cats were so dominant with Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins only combining for one goal last week. With the plethora of injuries Carlton have had in defence this season, it’s going to be a tough ask containing the second and third highest goal kickers this season. Jacob Weitering will likely get the matchup on Hawkins will be a blockbuster matchup, however the Blues don’t have a great matchup for Cameron.
Match Prediction
This clash has the potential to be one of the best games of the season, and Geelong are starting to hit an ominous patch of form as they prepare for another tilt at a premiership. It’s hard to discredit what the Blues have done so far this season, however Fremantle are the only top four team they’ve played this season, they’re yet to face a team of Geelong’s calibre.
The Cats have had the wood over Carlton, winning twelve of their last fourteen games against the Blues. With the way Geelong have been playing over the last two months, it’s simply too hard to go past them. They’ve got a major advantage over Carlton with their big game experience, and you’ll see a professional Cats outfit get the job done once again on Saturday night.
Geelong -8.5
$2.00 (1.5 Units)
Prop Bets
Heading into this game most of the attention has been on the star key forwards, and these key forwards are going to create plenty of opportunities for the smalls. Tyson Stengle has had a remarkable season, kicking 32 goals from 16 games to put himself in the All-Australian conversation. Stengle has kicked 2+ goals in three of his last four games and has kicked multiple goals in ten of his sixteen games in 2022.
Tyson Stengle 2+ Goals, $1.70 with Ladbrokes
With the attacking quality on both these sides this should be a high scoring encounter at the home of football. Eleven of Carlton’s sixteen games have been above 158 total points and Cats have been involved in nine games above 158 points, with all five of their games at GMHBA stadium going under 158 total points. On the wide expanses of the MCG there should be plenty of goals on the board.
Total Points Over 157.5, $1.88 with Ladbrokes
Adam Saad has been outstanding for Carlton over the last two months, racking up disposals at will. Saad had a quiet game last week with very little ball in the Blues defensive 50 last week, but had hit the 25+ disposal mark in the three games leading into last week. There should be a lot more of the ball near Saad this week, and should allow him to continue his excellent form.
Adam Saad 25+ Disposals, $2.45 with Ladbrokes
