The 2022 AFL Finals series gets underway on Thursday night with an elimination final between Brisbane and Richmond. Jake Smit takes you through his best spread and player prop bets for this massive fixture!
Remember, Before You Bet will be previewing every game of the 2022 AFL season including the finals, so be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for regular updates.
Brisbane vs Richmond Betting Tips
Gabba, Thursday 1st September, 7:20pm (AEST)
Brisbane
Injuries: Cam Rayner, Noah Answerth (Suspended), Marcus Adams, Tom Berry, Carter Michael (Injured)
Brisbane have a couple of guys unavailable for selection for this final, with the two most important being Cam Rayner and Marcus Adams. Rayner will be available next week should the Lions progress, while Adams is out for the season as he continues to suffer from concussion symptoms.
The Lions questionable form in the second half of the season was capped off with an ugly 58-point loss at home to the Demons in Round 23. Their key players were in the headlines for all the wrong reasons as they saw a top four spot and second chance in the finals slip from their grasp. The Lions have been unable to win more than two matches in a row since Round 9 and have lost two of their last four matches on their home deck, which is not the sort of for you want to be bringing into a finals series.
Richmond
Injuries: Dylan Grimes
Dylan Grimes has missed a chunk of the season with a bad hamstring injury and will likely continue to miss for the remainder of the finals unless they go all the way to the Grand Final. In better news, Dustin Martin is expected to return on Thursday night providing he passes a final fitness test.
In contrast to their opponents, the Tigers have been building towards their best form in the back half of the season and enter the finals unbeaten in their last five matches. They’ve destroyed each of their last three opponents by at least six goals and have put up totals of 104, 109, 128 and 141 in their last four outings. They’re clearly firing on all cylinders going forward with the ball and were a team that no team wanted to meet in the first week of finals.
Match Prediction
Although they would’ve preferred to stay in Melbourne for their elimination final, the Tigers couldn’t have asked for a better opponent considering they finished in seventh spot on the ladder. They’ve had the wood over the Lions for a number of years now and that includes matches on the road at the Gabba. Amazingly, the Tigers have won 17 of their last 19 meetings with the Lions, including a 15-match win streak that spanned from 2010-2020.
Clearly, the Tigers aren’t the powerhouse team in 2022 that they were a couple of years ago, but they’ve been trending in the right direction and that’s something you can’t necessarily say about the Lions who were thumped by the Demons in their most recent outing. So, with everything considered, I’m happy to make a small play on the Tigers to continue their dominance in this matchup and win by 1-39 points.
Richmond 1-39
$2.30 (1.5 Units)
Prop Bets
There’s something about the Lions defence that Jack Riewoldt just loves matching up against. He’s kicked 24 goals from his last seven matches against them, kicking at least two on each occasion. He’s good value to continue that trend on Thursday night.
Jack Riewoldt 2+ Goals ($1.75 at Ladbrokes)
Dustin Martin is likely to return on Thursday night and one would expect he’ll predominantly play as a forward. This should free up Shai Bolton to spend more time in the midfield and naturally collect more disposals. I’m liking him in the 20+ and 25+ disposal markets in this one.
Shai Bolton 20+ Disposals ($2.45 at Ladbrokes)
With the bulk of the Tigers best midfielders available for action, Jayden Short could get the move back to defence where he’s proven to be a big possession-getter. He’s had 25+ in his last two games regardless and remains good value.
Jayden Short 25+ Disposals ($1.88 at Ladbrokes)
