One of the games of the weekend in Round 7 of the AFL sees the Brisbane Lions hosting Port Adelaide from 7.25pm on Saturday night. PuntingInDanger is back on deck with a full preview and betting tips for the clash below.
Gabba, Saturday 1st May 7.25pm (AEST)
Two teams that were strongly considered premiership contenders at the start of the year will headline the Saturday night slate in the AFL from the Gabba. Both are in the top eight and can consolidate their spots with a win.
The Power were too good for the Saints at home in Round 6, claiming a 54 point win to move to 5-1 on the season so far and they currently sit in 3rd place on the ladder. Their only loss came at the hands of the Eagles in Perth but they have a tough stretch coming up with games against the Lions, Bulldogs and Cats as well as the Adelaide Showdown in the next six rounds.
The Lions have had an up and down season to date but have won their last two games in a row against the Bombers and Blues. They are 3-3 this season and their other win came over the Magpies, so it’s safe to say they are yet to take a real scalp this season. They get the chance on Saturday night.
The Lions were dealt a blow in their win over the Blues as star midfielder Lachie Neale went down with an ankle injury that is expected to keep him out for at least 8 weeks. They will also be without Cam Ellis-Yolmen, Darcy Gardiner, Ely Smith, and Cam Rayner while Connor McFayden and Jarrod Berry will need to pass a fitness test to play.
The Power got through their bout with the Saints relatively unscathed but are still without the star youngsters Zak Butters and Xavier Duursma, apart from those two, the Power have an extremely good looking injury list at the moment and will field a strong side on Saturday night.
Finding it difficult to split these two sides and the bookies agree, opening with the Power as just 1.5 point favourites on the road. If this was in Adelaide I’d have absolutely no problem backing the Power but at the Gabba, I think this game becomes a 50-50.
It’s set to be pretty wet in Brisbane all weekend and the chance of rain on Saturday night is high. It was raining for the 1st half of the Lions clash against Essendon a few weeks ago before drying out later in the game and even though Brisbane scored 102 points, the game ended with a combined total of just 147. In the rain on Saturday night in what should be a more tightly contested battle, I think this goes under.
With no Lachie Neale in the side for the Lions, they will need someone to step up in the midfield and take on the bulk of the grunt work. Jarrod Lyons had 27 touches in shortened quarters against the Power last season and the game before that, his last with full length quarters against Port, he racked up 36 touches and a goal in a best on ground performance. Back him to have 30+ as the wet weather forces plenty of stoppages.
Karl Amon has taken a big step up since Zak Butters and Xavier Duursma came out of the Power side with injury. He racked up 16, 20 and 23 touches in his first three games of the season and since then he has had 25, 28 and 34. He has increased his output in every game to date and while I think that streak ends this week, I think he does easily clear the 25 touch mark again.
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