AFL Round 20 continues on Sunday with the twilight fixture between Fremantle and Richmond in Perth. As always, we bring you our best bet and Same Game Multi for this crucially important fixture right here!
Remember, you can check out our preview and tips for every game in Round 20 and beyond of the AFL season, just be sure to head to our AFL Betting Tips page for regular updates.
Optus Stadium, Sunday 1st August 5:10pm (AEST)
The final match of Round 20 has the potential to be one of the tightest ones, with 11th placed Fremantle hosting 10th placed Richmond in Perth. It’s do or die for both clubs in terms of their finals aspirations and it will be the Tigers who will start as the slight favourites.
Fremantle were building some solid momentum during the middle portion of the season to get themselves in finals contention, but their last two weeks have been horrific when copping heavy defeats at the hands of both Geelong and Sydney. The Dockers have scored just 89 points combined from their last two games and finals are now quickly slipping away as a result.
Richmond have followed a pretty similar trajectory to their opponents this season and just haven’t really been able to string together enough wins to occupy a top eight spot. They come into this off a wire-to-wire loss against the Cats, which made it five losses from their past six outings. Regardless, they remain just two points behind the Giants who are currently in eighth.
The Dockers copped a huge blow this week with skipper Nat Fyfe going under the knife to repair his shoulder, which will see him miss the rest of the season. He joins Brennan Cox, Joel Hamling and Michael Walters as key players expected to miss the rest of the campaign. For the Tigers, Dustin Martin is the obvious big out after his kidney injury, while Bachar Houli, Nathan Broad, Noah Balta and Nick Vlastuin are the other key players on the sidelines.
It’s tough to split these two teams this week when considering just how many important players are missing from both line-ups. As a result, we won’t be playing the head-to-head or match handicap markets, instead focusing on the total points market where the current total of 146.5 looks a touch too high in our opinion. Both clubs have struggled to kick a big score in recent weeks, with the Dockers averaging 70.4 over their last five games and the Tigers averaging 64.6 during the same timeframe. Last time they met the final score line was 56-29 in favour of the Tigers, albeit in 20% shorter game time, and we expect another low-scoring affair this time around.
Under 146.5 (1 Unit)
We’ve got a decent Same Game Multi to finish off an exciting Round 20. For the first of our three legs we’ll be taking new Tiger Matthew Parker for 15+ disposals. He was one of the better players for his team last weekend with 19 touches and eight tackles and should get plenty more midfield time on those efforts. For the second leg we’ll be looking at Daniel Rioli to collect 15+ touches. He’s been playing well since going to half back and has averaged 18 disposals over the past three weeks. Finally, we’ll be taking Mitch Crowden to kick a goal at any time for our value leg. Crowden’s kicked at least one goal in four of his past five games and should get another look or two this weekend.
Parker 15+ Disposals
Rioli 15+ Disposals
Crowden 1+ Goal
FRE vs RICH Same Game Multi
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