The weekend of preliminary finals continues on Saturday night with Port Adelaide hosting the Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval. As always, we bring you our match prediction and best Same Game Multi right here!
Remember to check out our AFL Tips page for all of our preview and betting tips for both of the prelims and plenty more including our popular Brownlow Medal tracker!
Adelaide Oval, Saturday 11th September 7:40pm (AEST)
The second preliminary final will be played in front of a raucous crowd in Adelaide, with the Power looking to deliver in front of their home fans against the Bulldogs. Due to home ground advantage and a recent win in this matchup, the Power will start as the clear favourites.
Port Adelaide made the most of their top two finish with an easy win over Geelong in their home qualifying final. Now with an extra week of rest under their belt, the Power will be looking to make the most of their second home preliminary final in as many years. They were desperately unlucky not to get over the line against the eventual premiers in their prelim last season and will be confident they can go at least one better this time around.
The Power have close to a full squad to pick from for this huge clash, with only young gun forward Mitch Georgiades missing through a hamstring injury he picked up in the final game of the home and away season.
The Western Bulldogs certainly didn’t finish the home and away season in the fashion they would’ve liked, but it didn’t end up costing them too much because here they are in the final four. The Bulldogs were dominant in their win over the Bombers in their first elimination final and backed it up with a gritty win on the road against the Lions last weekend, in what was arguably the best match we’ve seen this season.
The Bulldogs have a couple of injury problems from their one-point win over the Lions last weekend. Cody Weightman picked up a concussion just before half time and will be forced to miss this weekend due to protocols, while Marcus Bontempelli is under an injury cloud after picking up a knock to his knee last weekend. Josh Bruce remains the only other key player who’s forced to miss through injury.
These clubs met in the final round of the home and away season and what a thrilling match it was. The Bulldogs led by just under three goals with only a handful of minutes remaining, but the Power surged home late to steal the win by two points and knock the Bulldogs out of the top four. That was a necessary win for the Power however, as the Bulldogs took the chocolates in their earlier meeting this season by 19 points at Adelaide Oval.
Due to home ground advantage and superior form over the last couple of months, the Power will start at around 14-point favourites to win their way through to the Grand Final, which seems about right in our opinion. So instead of playing the head-to-head or line markets, we’ll be looking to take the ‘unders’ in the total points market.
When the Power have played against top six sides this season there has been 157 or less points scored on five out of seven occasions, and when the Bulldogs have played against top six sides this season there has been 157 or less points scored on six out of eight occasions. We’re expecting that trend to here and recommend playing the ‘unders’ for 1.5 units.
Taylor Duryea rewarded 15+ disposal punters last weekend by collecting his 15th disposal of the match with just five seconds to spare. Duryea has now recorded 15+ in 20/23 matches this season and remains good value.
Travis Boak has put together one of the most consistent seasons of any player in the competition and remains fantastic value for 25+ disposals, which he’s achieved in 20/22 games. He had 24 touches in both times he missed the mark and is coming off three straight games of 31 or more.
Orazio Fantasia tore the Cats apart in the Power’s big qualifying final win a fortnight ago. He had a match-high four goals, which was the ninth time he’s had double-figure goals from his 14 matches this season. He’s a big-time player and will be constant threat on Saturday night.
Taylor Duryea 15+ Disposals
Travis Boak 25+ Disposals
Orazio Fantasia 2+ Goals
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