2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Votes Round 7

May 5th 2021, 4:10pm, By: Brownlow Bandit

AFL Hugh McLuggage Brownlow

We have a new leader in our Before You Bet 2021 AFL Brownlow Medal leaderboard! Brisbane's Hugh McLuggage has had a superb year and with another three votes over the weekend, we have him taking over the lead after Round 7 of the season. We might be crazy but we were keen on the $81 being offered last week, and you can still get $36 at Betfair for McLuggage to win the Brownlow. Not a bad bet! Christian Petracca is lurking close behind, although we didn't have him picking up any votes in Round 7. The other interesting mover is Port Adelaide's Ollie Wines who we have in equal second after another huge effort in a losing team in Round 7. It's always hard to poll votes when you lose but Ollie Wines does stand out and should poll well so far this season.

Check out our analysis and 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 7 below!

You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard tracker with links to round-by-round voting posted there.

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2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 7

Richmond 11.11.77 def Western Bulldogs 7.13.55

The bubble has burst for the Western Bulldogs as the Tigers reasserted their authority on the competition with a classic come-from-behind victory. Big Tom Lynch was the difference with eight shots on goal for 3 goals from 14 disposals and 12 marks. Shai Bolton (22 disposals, 3 goals), Trent Cotchin (24 disposals, 7 clearances) and Bachar Houli (31 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) were also among the Tigers best. Marcus Bontempelli (26 disposals) was good for the Dogs but will rue a missed shot on goal after the half-time siren. Caleb Daniel (34 disposals) and Bailey Dale (27 disposals) were also creative across half-back.

Tom Lynch - 3
Shai Bolton - 1.5
Trent Cotchin - 1.5

Collingwood 7.13.55 def by Gold Coast 12.7.79

A hugely disappointing result for the Pies, who are now languishing near the bottom of the ladder, as the Suns ran hot on the MCG. Brandon Ellis was everywhere with 35 disposals, 16 marks, 5 tackles and a goal, with good support from Touk Miller (34 disposals, 8 marks) and Hugh Greenwood (26 disposals, 10 tackles, 12 clearances, 1 goal). Josh Corbett finished the job up forward with 4 goals from 16 disposals and 11 marks. Brody Mihocek played a lone hand for the Pies with 4 goals from 24 disposals and 12 marks and could pinch a vote.

Brandon Ellis - 3
Hugh Greenwood - 1
Touk Miller - 1
Brody Mihocek - 1

Adelaide 4.15.36 def by GWS Giants 15.16.106

The Giants were too strong for the Crows as they inch their way up towards the top 8. Tim Taranto (35 disposals, 7 tackles, 7 clearances), Jacob Hopper (30 disposals, 9 marks), Lachie Whitfield (30 disposals, 8 marks) and Josh Kelly (27 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) were all prolific to setup the victory. Ben Keays was again best for Adelaide with 28 disposals and 7 tackles.

Tim Taranto - 3
Josh Kelly - 2
Lachie Whitfield - 1

St.Kilda 19.14.128 def Hawthorn 9.5.59

The Saints bounced back to form with a thumping win over the Hawks. Zak Jones returned in style with 37 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances and 2 goals in a great performance. Hunter Clark (26 disposals, 6 tackles, 2 goals), Brad Crouch (32 disposals, 7 tackles) and Brad Hill (27 disposals, 5 tackles) all had good games. Tom Mitchell (38 disposals, 5 tackles, 5 clearances), James Worpel (33 disposals, 7 tackles, 11 clearances) and Jack Scrimshaw (33 disposals, 8 marks) tried hard for the Hawks but to no avail.

Zak Jones - 3
Hunter Clark - 2
Brad Hill - 1

Brisbane 13.15.93 def Port Adelaide 5.14.44

The Lions were too strong for the Power in slippery conditions at the Gabba. Hugh McLuggage (30 disposals, 6 clearances) and Jarryd Lyons (28 disposals, 7 clearances) were best in the middle, while Harris Andrews (15 disposals, 10 marks) was a rock at half-back, and Joe Daniher (17 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals) continued his good form. Ollie Wines (37 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) and Willem Drew (32 disposals, 5 clearances) could hold their heads high on a bleak night for the Power.

Hugh McLuggage - 3
Ollie Wines - 2
Harris Andrews - 1

Sydney 14.6.90 def Geelong 12.16.88

A controversial finish but four premiership points for the Swans in an exciting game at the SCG. Oli Florent (26 disposals, 2 goals), James Rowbottom (21 disposals, 1 goal) and Callum Mills (19 disposals, 11 marks) were good in the middle, while Tom Hickey (20 disposals, 23 hitouts, 10 clearances, 1 goal) continues to improve. Cam Guthrie (30 disposals, 7 tackles, 9 clearances) and Mitch Duncan (29 disposals, 7 marks, 6 clearances) were best for the Cats.

Oli Florent - 3
Tom Hickey - 2
Cam Guthrie - 1

North Melbourne 11.7.73 def by Melbourne 16.7.103

North took it right up to the undefeated Demons, and even led at half-time, but Melbourne turned it around in the second half to escape Tassie with the points. The resurgence was led by 6 goals from Bailey Fritsch, from 14 disposals and 6 marks. Big man Luke Jackson (22 disposals, 7 hitouts, 1 goal) was also influential while Christian Salem (29 disposals) patrolled across half-back. Ben Cunnington (35 disposals, 6, tackles, 8 clearances, 2 goals) was a standout for North, while Aaron Hall racked up 33 disposals and 12 marks.

Bailey Fritsch - 3
Ben Cunnington - 2
Luke Jackson - 1

Essendon 16.11.107 def by Carlton 19.9.123

The baby Blues came from behind to land an exciting win over the Bombers in a high-scoring contest. Sam Walsh was sensational with 33 disposals, 5 tackles, 8 clearances and a goal in a clear best-on-ground effort. Adam Saad (21 disposals, 1 goal) was electric with his run off half-back, while Ed Curnow (26 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances) did a good job in keeping the dangerous Zach Merrett under control. Andrew McGrath (29 disposals, 5 tackles, 6 clearances) was good for the Bombers while Cale Hooker contributed 5 goals from 15 disposals and 7 marks.

Sam Walsh - 3
Adam Saad - 2
Andrew McGrath - 0.5
Ed Curnow - 0.5

West Coast 20.12.132 def Fremantle 11.7.73

West Coast bounced back from a disappointing effort the week prior to record a strong win over Freo in front of an empty Optus Stadium. Tim Kelly was brilliant, collecting the medal for best on ground for a career-high 42 disposals, 9 tackles and 13 clearances. Andrew Gaff (35 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal), Dom Sheed (30 disposals, 7 clearances) and Jack Redden (29 disposals, 6 clearances) were busy, while Jack Darling (17 disposals, 9 marks, 3 goals) was a force in attack. Andrew Brayshaw (32 disposals) and David Mundy (29 disposals, 7 clearances) were best for the Dockers.

Tim Kelly - 3
Andrew Gaff - 2
Jack Darling - 1

 

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For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.

If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.

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