Round 23 of the 2019 AFL Premiership Season kicks off on Friday night with a match that can potentially impact the final make-up of the top eight. We’ve got two old rivals in Collingwood and Essendon going head-to-head at the MCG from 7:50pm AEST. Here, we preview the big clash and provide our best betting tips. Good luck to everyone following!
Make sure you check out our AFL Tips Page for a bunch of content for Round 23 in the AFL including previews and tips for EVERY GAME.
It’s an interesting match we've got on our hands on Friday night between two clubs that haven’t being in the best of form in the second half of the season. Regardless, both teams will be playing in September, and both will be looking to finish off the home and away season with a win.
The Magpies have seemingly turned things around in recent weeks with three consecutive wins. Last weekend they were handed a tough assignment of taking on the Crows in Adelaide in what was a must-win game for them. They handled the occasion with ease to record a huge 66 point road win. Jamie Elliott was the star with five goals from his 19 disposals, while Brayden Maynard was impressive off half-back with his 30 touches and one major.
Collingwood may have won three games in a row, but they’re still outside the top four, which could prove to be crucial in their finals campaign. There are quite a few scenarios that can see them jump up into fourth spot by the end of Round 23, but all scenarios must include a Collingwood win on Friday night.
The Bombers bounced back from two embarrassing losses in a row to record a much-needed win against the Dockers in Perth last weekend. They got off to a fast start to lead by four goals at half time and never looked back as they went on to record a wire-to-wire win. Zach Merrett continued his fantastic season with a 23 disposal and two goal performance, while Dylan Shiel (27 disposals, one goal) played one of his better games in the second half of the season. Interestingly, the Bombers broke the record for the worst contested possession differential (-54) by a winning team.
Last weekend’s win secured a finals berth for the Bombers, meaning they’ll feature in September for the first time since 2014. It’s been a long time between drinks for fans of the red-and-black, even longer when you look back to their last win in a final (2004). They aren’t exactly storming into September, but a win over the Magpies on Friday night would give them some much-needed momentum.
Collingwood have gotten the better of Essendon in each of their last three meetings, but other than that it’s been a fairly even rivalry with Essendon leading Collingwood 41-37 in the head-to-head count since 1980.
Last five meetings:
2019 R6 – Essendon (69) lost to Collingwood (73)
2018 R16 – Essendon (62) lost to Collingwood (78)
2018 R5 – Collingwood (101) defeated Essendon (52)
2017 R16 – Collingwood (80) lost to Essendon (117)
2017 R5 – Essendon (100) defeated Collingwood (82)
Key Betting Statistics
- Essendon’s last six matches at the MCG have gone under the betting total line.
- Collingwood has won the last three meetings with Essendon.
- Essendon has lost 11 of their last 13 Friday night matches at the MCG.
- Zach Merrett has had 30+ disposals in four of his last five meetings with Collingwood.
- Brodie Grundy has had 22+ disposals in each of his last three meetings with Essendon.
The Bombers may have won last weekend against the Dockers, but if they can’t win the contested ball against the Magpies, or at least come close to doing so, then they’ll get punished on Friday night. We aren’t convinced that they’re back in form and will be backing in Collingwood to cover the spread on Friday night as a result.
If you’re keen on playing some of the player prop markets, then both Grundy to get 20+ disposals and Zach Merrett to get 30+ appeal at around a $2 quote. Add in Collingwood to win and you get a nice $5 Same Game Multi (SGM) at Sportsbet.
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