After a relatively disappointing Round 21, I am hoping to finish off the 2016 AFL season with plenty of winners. I'm still in profit for the season, but I can't get complacent with two weeks to go before finals. The last few rounds of footy always throws up danger games as top teams rest players and it becomes hard to guess which bottom teams will bother showing up on any given day. Let's see how this week goes as I offer my 2016 AFL Round 22 betting tips.
AFL Round 22 Betting Tips
West Coast Eagles vs Hawthorn Hawks (Friday, August 19 at 6:10pm AWST)
Last year's Grand Finalists play for the second time this season and no doubt the Eagles will be happy to have this one at Domain after being demoralised by the Hawks at the MCG on both previous occasions.
It wasn't too long ago that many had written the Eagles off. There weren't any doubts they would make the finals, but they didn't look like the same team that made the Grand Final last week. What a difference a few weeks can make. They might not quite be there yet, but Round 21's last-second win against GWS on the road will boost the confidence - especially considering their returning hero Nic Nat was the man to kick the winning goal. So, does that mean they will beat Hawthorn in Round 22? I would have said no if the game was in Melbourne, but the Eagles are a different team at Domain.
The key to the Hawks winning will be the same as it has been in the last two meetings - stop Josh J Kennedy from getting the ball. The Eagles are a far less dangerous team without Kennedy fired up and the Hawks know that. He kicked just one goal total between the Hawks last two wins over the Eagles and that will be key again this weekend. Despite the game being at Domain, you have to say the Hawks have the edge over the Eagles. They have so much to play for at the moment. Yes, the Eagles are a sneaky chance of making the top four if everything goes right, but the Hawks HAVE to win both of their last two games to sure up a spot in the top four. The Hawks seem to have the edge over the Eagles too. They have won seven of the last eight and four of them by more than 40 points. It's easy to get excited about the Eagles after their win last week and then oversell the fact this game is at Domain. They are coming off consecutive six day breaks, including last week which was on the road. This should be too hard. Taking the Hawks with a fair bit of value at the current price.
Tip: Hawthorn to win - $1.95 at Ladbrokes (2 units)
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans (Saturday, August 20 at 1:45pm AEST)
The Roos will be hoping they sneak into the top eight, thanks in part to Sydney getting the job done against the Saints last week. If that game went differently, the Roos would come into this round with a completely different mindset and might even rise to the occasion. But alas, after last week's effort against the Hawks, you wouldn't give them much of a chance against Sydney in Round 22 - even if the game is down in Tasmania.
The Roos have won eight in a row at Blundstone Arena, but that's right around where the positives end. They are simply outclassed here. The Roos have one of the worst midfields in the comp - a handful of the same pace players and none of them compare to the game's elite. Sydney, meanwhile, have arguably the best midfield in the comp. Hannebery, Parker, Kennedy, Mitchell and the like should tear the Roos apart. The Swans are also one of the best scoring teams and even if the Roos somehow stop the likes of Lance Franklin kicking goals, their own forward line has to take on the number one ranked defense in the league. They will be happy to get Ben brown and Scott Thompson back in the side, but this looks like it will be a Swans victory. However, because the Swans have to travel in consecutive weeks and the game is in Tasmania, I will be taking them to win in a relatively competitive game.
Tip: Sydney by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.10 at William Hill (1.5 units)
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints (Saturday, August 20 at 2:10pm AEST)
I was just as surprised as any punter with Richmond's first three quarters against Geelong last week. And I think none of us were surprised by their last quarter meltdown that saw them lose the unlosable. Surely confidence is at an all-time low as they head into this game against the Saints on Saturday afternoon at the 'G.
As much as I'm being tough on the Tigers, the Saints weren’t much better last week. They were competitive for half the game, but ended up losing by 70 points. The Saints also came out of the game with some injury woes, none more disappointing than Tom Hickey who was hobbling for much of the second half of the game. Hickey is extremely important to the Saints and if he's not named, this will be a very tough game to win at the MCG. I lean towards the Saints, but have to sit this game out. With not much to play for, it's just too hard to tell how games like this will go. If Hickey is named, you can consider the Saints, but take the safe option with this one.
Tip: No Bet.
GWS Giants vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, August 20 at 4:35pm AEST)
It's going to be interesting to see how the young Giants respond to their heartbreaking one-point loss to the Eagles last week. They played some really good football, but just couldn't get the job done in the dying moments of the game. If they show some resilience and learn from the loss, they should come out and make a statement against the struggling Dockers.
There aren't many reasons to think the Dockers can win this game. Apart from their obvious troubles on the ground, they now also have to contend with a lot of media noise about disharmony between key players and club officials. Their players will be desperate to get the season over and done with and won't be looking forward to this late-season trip to Sydney. There is a reason Australian sports betting sites have set the line at almost ten goals. The last time the two teams met the Giants won by 17 points at Domain Stadium. The margin should exceed that at the Giants' home, but I'm not excited about the 10 goal line. What I do like the look of is the total game score. The Giants have put up some huge scores at Spotless and I think that could be the case again this week. The two smallest scores the Giants have made at Spotless this season are 96 and 93 points and they were both in losses. In each of the Dockers' last four losses the game score has gone over 170 points and with the weather looking good in Sydney this weekend, I think the 168-point line is generous.
Tip: Total Game Score OVER 168.5 - $1.90 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
Collingwood Magpies vs Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, August 20 at 7:25pm AEST)
Both the Magpies and the Suns have been very disappointing this season and both teams have somewhat of an excuse with their respective injury plagues. Collingwood, however, would like their chances this Saturday night as they come into this game on the back of a solid performance against the Bulldogs last week and have a chance to win their first game at Etihad since 2014.
Gold Coast's season is currently at an all-time low after losing to the Bombers last week. They were outclassed by Essendon's midfield with guys like David Zaharakis and Zach Merrett really getting a hold of the undermanned Suns. That's where they will lose this game with Adam Treloar, Pendlebury and co sure to dominate. If the Suns are any chance Tom Lynch will have to be at his best up forward. I'm not excited about it, but I just think the Pies will take something from their loss to the Bulldogs last week and try harder to finish the season strongly. The Suns, meanwhile, might already have an eye on the off-season if their performance against the Bombers last week is anything to go by. It's always hard to travel two weeks in a row as well, which also puts the game in Collingwood's favour.
Tip: Collingwood at the line (-19.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Port Adelaide Power vs Adelaide Crows (Saturday, August 20 at 7:10pm AEST)
If things played out how they arguably should have this season, the Round 22 South Australian showdown would have been bookmarked as one of the biggest games of the year. Unfortunately, however, the Power's season has been a disaster and so they go into this game against the Crows with nothing to play for except pride. The Crows, meanwhile, are fired up and fighting for a spot in the top four.
You wouldn't give the Power any chance this week if you simply rate them on their performance against the Demons in Round 21. Their ball movement was horrible, they couldn't score and their effort was abysmal. It's so hard to know if they will step up for a showdown game. If they don't, they are going to be embarrassed by the league's best scoring team in the Crows. It's easy to suggest the Crows will easily win this game, but in my opinion there are too many unknowns. The line is just too big to flirt with. Sitting this one out.
Tip: No Bet.
Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons (Sunday, August 21 at 1:10pm AEST)
There is talk that the Demons are a sneaky chance to make the top eight. A lot of that is out of their hands, however, as firstly they need the Roos to lose on Saturday. If that happens (as we expect) then the Demons will come out firing against the Blues on Sunday.
The Blues have a great record against the Demons, winning eight of the last nine. Unfortunately, however, they have played some horrid football in the second half of this season, while the Demons are at the opposite end of the spectrum. In the last two weeks they have defeated the Hawks and the Power. They are no doubt brimming with confidence. I’m not overly confident on this play, but on current form, you have to back the Demons to comfortably win.
Tip: Demons at the line (-22.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (0.5 units)
Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats (Sunday, August 21 at 3:20pm)
Despite winning last week, the Cats will be very disappointed with their performance. They really struggled against the Tigers for three quarters and fortunately ended up getting the job done. The Lions, meanwhile, come into this game on the back of a rare win and will no doubt be hoping to keep up the effort for the last couple of games of the season.
Every key stat points to a convincing Geelong win. That's why the line is ten goals. However, we no just how poor the Cats can be against bottom eight teams this season and that's why I'm apprehensive to bet on this game. The Cats should respond strongly to their poor effort last week and with the top four so tight, they need any percentage boost they can get. Just feels like a very dangerous game at the Gabba. The Cats will win, but staying away from this.
Tip: No Bet.
Essendon Bombers vs Western Bulldogs (Sunday, August 21 at 4:40pm AEST)
It's not too often we can say the Bombers are coming into a game on the back of a win, but that is certainly the case in Round 22 after their victory over the Suns last week. It's unlikely they will make it two in a row, however, as they take on the Western Bulldogs at their favourite stadium.
It's hard to know how this game will play out. Both teams are low scoring (the Bombers obviously far lower) and both teams are extremely high possession teams. You could see this being a high scoring affair in which the Dogs win by a big margin, but you can also see the game being relatively low scoring with the defensive efforts of the Dogs keeping the Bombers to just a handful of goals. Another danger game in terms of betting. I don't like the line, but I lean towards the game score going under 170 points. The Dogs have only scored over 100 points five times this year and the Bombers only average 64 points. Small play on the under.
Tip: Total Game Score UNDER 171.5 - $1.92 at Crownbet (0.5 units)
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