The 2015 NFL season is set to begin this week with Aussie fans licking their lips at the prospect of following all the action of the American Football.
Before You Bet’s US sporting specialist Johnny Houston will once again be offering NFL betting tips all year, starting with his NFL Season Preview and NFL Week 1 Betting Tips.
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Who will win Super Bowl 50?
It’s so hard to predict that sort of thing in September, but that’s the question inevitably on all NFL fans lips. I prefer to start the season by thinking in terms of which teams I think will win each division – which is hard enough most years. If I had to pick a Super Bowl 50 champion, however, I would have to go with the Indianapolis Colts. They certainly look like value at $9 and I can see them going very close. Andrew Luck has improved every year of his career and this looks like the next step.
As an outsider, I like the Dallas Cowboys at $17. Everyone seems to be writing them off without DeMarco Murray, but they are still a strong team and look like value at a price like that.
Outside of predicting the Super Bowl, I think punters can find some value betting on each of the eight division winners. Below who is I like to win each division.
NFC North: Baltimore Ravens - $2.50 at Sportsbet
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys - $2.50 at Sportsbet
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons - $2.88 at Sportsbet
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks - $1.30 at Sportsbet
AFC North: Green Bay Packers - $1.45 at Sportsbet
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts - $1.20 at Sportsbet
AFC West: San Diego Chargers - $3.50 at Sportsbet
If you are brave you can multi all the division winners for odds of more than $200-1, but ultimately we think the locks are Packers, Patriots, Colts and Seahawks and with plenty of value on the rest.
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The following games is where we see the value betting NFL Week 1.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots – Friday, Sep 11 at 10:30am AEST
Pittsburgh will try and steel the lime light away from defending Super Bowl champions the New England Patriots in the season opener. Pittsburgh will be up against it especially now quarterback Tom Brady has been cleared to play after the “deflate gate” saga. The Patriots will also unveil their Super Bowl banner and I would imagine that Gillette Stadium will be abuzz all night, making it even more difficult for the visiting Steelers.
A hostile environment is just the beginning of Pittsburgh’s problems. A bigger issue is some of their injury and suspensions. The suspension of star running back La’Veon Bell is obviously a big out but the loss of center Maurkice Pouncy will be just as detrimental to the Pittsburgh offense.
One thing the Patriots and Steelers have in common is the suspension of both their running backs. Le Garette Blount will also miss week one due to the same Marijuana violation. A bigger concern for the Patriots is the missing pieces on the defensive side of the ball. The line for this game does worry me (for either team) however I am leaning towards New England -7.0. The total (52.0) has me thinking this game will be all about the quarterbacks and receivers for both sides. Look for a high scoring affair for the opening game of the season.
Tip: Total Game Score Over 52.0 points - $1.92 at Sportsbet
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – Monday, Sep 14 at 10:30am AEST
Sunday night’s prime-time game slot will see NFC East rivals do battle and I smell blood in the water. This game opened at -5.0 (DAL) and I expect this number to rise and rise. Even though the Dallas Cowboys are the Collingwood Magpies of the NFL (most publicly bet team) and the fact that the odd makers account for all this, I still believe the line is wrong. There are too many question marks surrounding the Giants (except Odell Beckam Jr.) especially their defense. Even if Eli Manning and OBJ can hook up for a couple of touchdowns they can’t stop anybody from scoring.
Dallas look primed. The loss of superstar running back DeMarco Murray will not sting their running game as much as everyone thinks. This team is ruled by its supreme Offensive line and I believe any running back that gets the help from this O-Line unit will be a star by seasons end.
Tip: Cowboys at the line (-6.0) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons – Tuesday, September 15 at 9:10am AEST
Philly are going to be an exciting team to watch this season. Head Coach Chip Kelly has shaken it up to say the least. Acquiring DeMarco Murray and Sam Bradford has people putting them as Super Bowl contenders even. I am not going that far just yet but I will be keeping a close eye on this team as the season progresses.
The line is currently in favour of the Eagles (-3.0) and the total is a whopping 55.0. Atlanta can put up some touchdowns with the likes of Julio Jones and Roddy White (Matt Ryan is no slouch either) but they are yet to be proven on defense. Even though they have brought in new coaching staff and spent draft picks on the defensive side of the ball I can’t see it all coming together week 1. In Saying that I am leaning towards the OVER 55.0 along with the line tip.
Tip: Eagles at the line (-3.0) - $1.95 at Ladbrokes
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers –Tuesday, September 15 at 12:20pm AEST
First things first congratulations to Jarryd Hayne. Hopefully he gets thrown into action early. The San Francisco 49ers look like a dumpster fire! They have had the worst off season, starting with the loss of head coach Jim Harbaugh and Offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Then there are a bunch of players that have moved on or retired. I have a bad feeling for the 49ers this season.
The Vikings will welcome the return of Adrian Peterson (although I do not) and now quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has a season under his belt the Vikings are looking slightly more attractive. I cannot see a whole lot of points being put on the scoreboard in this game. Leaning UNDER 41.5 and also going with the visiting small favourite. The score should look something like 17-10 in favour of Minnesota.
Tip: Vikings at the line (-2.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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