2015 Australian Cup Day Preview & Tips
A massive day of racing is ahead of us this Saturday as the Autumn racing carnival kicks it up a gear on Australian Cup Day. We’re going to take a look at the two feature races from Flemington – the Newmarket Handicap and, of course, the Australian Cup.
Newmarket Handicap – Flemington Race 6 3:50pm
The Newmarket Handicap is a mouth-watering race with the best sprinters in the world battling it out over 1,200 metres. The field is small with just nine runners, but it’s loaded with talent.
It’s really hard to look past the top four in the market. The top weight and defending champion Lankan Rupee ($3.50 at Sportsbet) looks hard to beat. He was dominant in the Lightning Stakes three weeks ago with an explosive turn of foot. They seem to have figured out the best way to ride him and will be looking to take a sit once again behind likely leader in Driefontein ($51 at Ladbrokes). The weight is the biggest query, as he will be giving up several kilos to his two main rivals.
The bookies are finding it hard to split Lankan Rupee and the grey Chatauqua ($4.00 at Ladbrokes). In the G2 Rubiton Stakes, Chautauqua had a rough trip but still got the win. His record over this course is impressive and he’ll enjoy the Flemington straight, however has yet to prove himself against opposition of this quality.
Terravista ($6.00 at Sportsbet) is resuming here which in itself makes it a tough ask. Has trialled well and did defeat the same horses at level weights in the G1 Darley Classic in the spring. With the other three contenders all with runs under their belt, it’s hard to put Terravista on top here.
Brazen Beau ($5.00 at Luxbet) is on the third line of betting and may be the one to near under the guard of the three more well-known fancies. Ran on very strongly behind Lankan Rupee in the Lightning Stakes and should enjoy the rise to 1,200 metres. He is also very well weighted with just 52kgs to be 3.5kgs better off from the previous run. This should put him right in contention.
Verdict: Once again we’re going to stick with the proven winner in five-time Group 1 winner Lankan Rupee. Back with the money back offers in the promotions below and you can’t really go wrong. You can even Saver Chautauqua if you like. Expect Brazen Beau to give a scare and may be one worth considering if you’re looking for a bit more value.
1st Lankan Rupee
2nd Brazen Beau
3rd Chautauqua
4th Terravista
Australian Cup – Flemington Race 7 4:30pm
The Australian Cup over 2,000 metres has provided a quality field full of well-credentialed horses. Some do look more suited than others in this preparation and over this distance, so hopefully we can find a winner.
The race looks well setup for Happy Trails ($4.60 at Ladbrokes). We’re always happy to take him on early in his preparation but now third-up, he looks primed. Last run over 1,800 metres he really stepped up and he will enjoy the extra distance here. The speed map will also have The Cleaner ($17 at Sportsbet) setting a cracking pace so it should suit Happy Trails to come home with a wet sail.
It’s hard to ignore Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist ($6.00 at Bet365) but he was poor in his first-up run in the G2 Peter Young. He has the class, will enjoy the extra distance and now with a little fitness under the belt, he may come into calculations, but there’s not a lot of value there in our mind.
Mourinho ($12 at Bet365) is right in contention here as one of the form horses in the country. Impressive wins in the Australia Stakes and Peter Young, and a third in the G1 CF Orr, put him into considerations but he has drawn wide in barrier 13. He’s fit and has a good record, so if he can get across, he’ll be there at the finish and looks a good each-way prospect.
The other runner we’re interested in is Foreteller ($9.50 at Ladbrokes). Third up here, Foreteller looks well set for this race, is a proven chance at this level and the speed map suggests that the pace up front will suit this swooper from the back.
Red Cadeaux ($14 at Sportsbet) and Entirely Platinum ($26 at Sportsbet) look the value runners to include in exotics while Extra Zero ($81 at Sportsbet) is juicy odds for a very consistent performer.
Verdict: The race seems setup for two swoopers who are both third up in their preparations. There has been big support for Happy Trails and we’ll be following with a smaller bet on Foreteller.
1st Happy Trails
2nd Foreteller
3rd Mourinho
4th The Cleaner
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
