The Spring Carnival is getting serious as Derby Day kicks off a massive week of racing this Saturday. What a fantastic time of the year it is to be in Melbourne! We hope you get amongst it with a few ales and a couple of winners in the lead up to the Melbourne Cup.
Unfortunately we missed the mark in the Cox Plate last weekend. Adelaide wasn’t even on our radar! It was a cracking ride, but you have to think that Fawkner was unlucky after knuckling at the start. Anyway we move on with our preview of the 2014 Victoria Derby.
It’s really hard to go past the favourite here in Hampton Court ($2.70 at Ladbrokes). Smashed two of the best three-year olds in the country last start in First Seal and the previously undefeated Sweynesse, to win the the G1 Spring Champion Stakes. Perhaps the two leaders were a little too concerned about each other rather than looking over their shoulders? After drawing barrier 11, it’s expected that Hampton Court will push up to be on the speed which goes a little against his come-from-behind victory at Randwick.
Preferment ($6.00 at BetEasy) is on the next line of betting, and while he is still a maiden, he looks a good stayer with the 2,500 metre distance likely to suit and has drawn well in barrier six. Happy to risk here based on lack of previous results.
Offering a little more value is Moonovermanhattan ($9.00 at Ladbrokes) who was ultra-impressive in the G2 Vase. After some confusing changes to race tactics on the morning of the race, Moonovermanhattan raced closer to the speed and then turned it on in the straight winning with ease. The step up to the 2,500 metres will be the question, but if he can stay the distance, could be a real contender.
Bondeiger ($10 at Bet365) is another offering some value. Had the fastest 400m sectional of the Vase and could be one of the outside dangers to the favourite.
Verdict: The Victoria Derby has proved troublesome for favourites in the past, and we couldn’t argue if you put your money on Hampton Court here. However we feel there’s more value on Moonovermanhattan. Given a forwards ride, Moonovermanhattan has already shown its class and we think is a great each-way bet.
1st Moonovermanhattan ($9.00 at Ladbrokes)
2nd Hampton Court ($2.70 at Ladbrokes)
3rd Bondeiger ($10 at Bet365)
Take note: The above tips are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
