Round 8 of the 2014 AFL season was the first week of byes and all in all it was a successful week on the punt for us here at Before You Bet. We picked three out of four winners, two of which were paying around the $2.30 mark. Hopefully Round 9, the second week of the byes, will be just as lucrative! Make sure to read on and check out Before You Bet’s 2014 AFL Round 9 preview, betting tips and tipping advice!
2014 AFL Round 9 Preview
**With the early start on Thursday in Round 9, full teams have not been named. Some of the comments and suggestions within this article may be modified if any major team changes are made before each game. Be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page where we will let you know if anything changes**
We’ve just had footy on Monday night and now Round 9 kicks off on a Thursday! Lucky we love AFL or we might feel a bit overwhelmed right now! The first game is a sold-out blockbuster over in South Australia – Adelaide Crows Vs. Collingwood Magpies. First factor in this game is the Magpies great form. They are quite simply playing like a top four team and there are no signs that will be slowing down. The next factor is playing over in Adelaide. It would be easy to swing this factor in Adelaide’s favour, but the Magpies haven’t lost in Adelaide since 2006. They have also won eight of the last nine encounters against the Crows. One positive for Adelaide is the inclusion of Tex Walker. He’s a superstar sure, but let’s not overrate someone who has had so little time out on the park. The Crows will certainly be looking to put their loss to Melbourne behind them and will be firing in front of a massive Adelaide crowd, but the Magpies midfield is firing and will not be stopped. If Adelaide are a chance, Patrick Dangerfield will need to fire up, but interestingly Dangerfield’s worst record against a single team happens to be against Collingwood. Will be lively game, but ultimately the Magpies should win by at least a couple of goals.
The next game on the agenda is another game with plenty of interest – Friday night’s Essendon Bombers Vs. Sydney Swans. It’s at Etihad which is slightly in the Bombers favour, but the Swans are in redhot form and coming off a big victory against Hawthorn last week. The Swans have a great record against the Bombers, winning four of the last five. There a few other factors here which we think indicate a big Swans victory. Firstly, the Swans have averaged more tackles than any team in the league, while the Bombers are ranked 11th. The Bombers will struggle to rough it out with the tough Swans. Secondly, the Buddy Franklin factor. His record against Essendon is unprecedented. In the last ten games against the Bombers Buddy has kicked 50 goals. That’s not to say he is guaranteed to continue that form, but consider this – the Bombers will be thinking about this stat and will be sure to try and cover Buddy as best they can. If they do manage to keep Buddy quiet, they are arguably going to use up a lot of manpower to do so… And then, bang! Kurt Tippet kicks a bag and the Swans crush the Bombers. This sort of thing will be talked about a lot with the Swans, but it’s more relevant here in this game than ever. The Tippet/Buddy combo looked good last week against a much tougher Hawks and with huge confidence from that game, the Bombers will struggle.
Saturday’s game is Melbourne Demons Vs. Richmond Tigers and it looks like an interesting one. The Tigers have really struggled this year and Paul Roos’ Demons know that. Considering the two contrasting years these two teams had last year it is crazy to actually compare these two teams and see that they have similar stats at the moment as they are actually equal 11th for contested marks. Brett Deledio is starting to get some more gametime in his legs and will be The Tigers will really be fighting to win this game, but the Demons should keep it close. We especially like the Under 39.5 here in consideration of the fact that even when the Demons were at their worst in 2013 the Tigers still only won by 34 points.
The first thing we will say about North Melbourne Kangaroos Vs. Brisbane Lions is that we will not be betting on this game. The Kangaroos are just too hard to bet on at the moment. We do think they will (read: should) easily take care of the Lions, but the line is 45 points and who knows if we will see the gun Kangaroos who will crush this team, or the inconsistent marsupials who struggle to win by more than a goal or two.
Saturday afternoon’s game is going to be cracker – Fremantle Dockers Vs. Geelong Cats. It’s over in Western Australia which is a plus for the Dockers, but the Cats are the Cats and that’s definitely a negative for them. The big talking point this week will be Matthew Pavlich’s 300th game and whether or not the Dockers will stand up for the legend’s milestone game. Maybe they will, but it’s a tough one to bet on. There is no line here which indicates how close the sports books think it will be. The Dockers have a fairly good record to the Cats, comparable to any team in the league. Ryan Crowley has crushed Joel Selwood in the past and will likely do so again. Leaning towards Fremantle here, but going to sit on it for a few days before deciding whether or not to get our hard earned on it.
Sunday is St Kilda Saints Vs. Gold Coast Suns and it looks like the Saints don’t stand a chance. Nick Riewoldt does have great form against the Suns, kicking 17 goals in four games, but he can’t win it off his own boot. The Saints midfield is outclassed by the Suns and it’s a midfield that will be refreshed after a week off. The Saints backline struggles and is quite short, while the Suns have a tall forward line. The Suns deserve to be four-goal favourites, but it’s a tough line to bet. Will watch with interest.
Round 9 Best Betting Tips
Collingwood Magpies Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.30 at Ladbrokes ***
Sydney Swans Over 39.5 (Margin 40+) - $3.60 at Ladbrokes *
Richmond Tigers Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.25 at Ladbrokes ***
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Round 9 Tipping Advice
We managed to get just one wrong in the first round of the byes (Hawthorn) and will be looking to do one better and get all six right this week. Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we pick in a tipping competition down at the local pub or in the workplace!
Collingwood (Adelaide)
Sydney (Essendon)
Richmond (Melbourne)
North Melbourne (Brisbane)
Fremantle (Geelong)
Gold Coast (St Kilda)
Score last round: 5
Total Score: 44
Take note: The above tips are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!.
