Can you believe there are only three rounds of footy to go? The 2014 AFL season has just flown by too quickly. Luckily for us though Round 20 is going to be a cracker. It’s that time of the year when games become integral to where teams finish on the ladder. Check out our latest AFL betting tips with our Round 21 preview, tips and advice.
2014 AFL Round 21 Preview
Round 21 begins with a big Friday night blockbuster at Etihad Stadium – Carlton Blues Vs. Geelong Cats. It looks like Geelong have locked up a spot in the top four, but they wouldn’t want to put pressure on themselves by losing games like this. The Blues haven’t defeated Geelong since Round 6 in 2010. In fact, Geelong have not lost to Carlton at Etihad in 12 games. In saying that though, footy fans will remember that when these two met at Etihad back in Round 12 this year, Geelong won by just five points when skipper Joel Selwood kicking the winning goal in the dying moments. It’s true that Carlton have been playing better football lately, but Geelong match up well against the Blues. Some would argue that Geelong haven’t looked their best, but they just keep getting it done and despite Jimmy Bartel and Steve Johnson being out, would expect more of the same here.
The first game on Saturday is Sydney Swans Vs. St Kilda Saints and it’s probably the least interesting game of Round 21. It’s at the SCG and quite simply the Saints can’t win. Bit hard to back Sydney at a more than ten goal line, but you could never argue that the Saints will be competitive. Swans need to keep winning games to stay in second position on the ladder above the Cats.
Saturday really starts to get interesting with the Gold Coast Suns Vs. Port Adelaide Power. It’s up at Metricon Stadium and there should be a solid home ground field to support the Suns’ quest for the top eight. It’s a simple equation for the Suns – win and they can still make the finals. Lose and it’s extremely unlikely. One fact that is hard to get past here is that the Suns have still only ever won once without Gary Ablett. They didn’t look great against the Blues last week either. Port, on the other hand, played some good footy against the Swans and seem to be back to their early season form. The Power continue to get the ball inside 50 the second most times per game in the league, while the Gold Coast struggle in this department, ranked 13th. Just can’t see the Suns putting enough points on the board to threaten Port here.
Saturday afternoon’s Essendon Bombers Vs. West Coast Eagles is arguably the biggest game of the round. The Bombers are currently in the eight, but a loss here would see them slip down the ladder. The Eagles have a big percentage and just need a few more premiership points to see them threaten for a place in the finals. They have been playing great footy too, so that wouldn’t be a huge surprise. This should be a tight, tough game. There is a lot on the line here. It’s effectively one of those mid-season ‘elimination finals’ type games that the media love to harp on about. The last time these two met at Etihad, the Eagles thrashed the Bombers. However, Essendon have won two of the last three games against the Eagles. Interestingly the Eagles have ranked number one in the league for tackles over the last few weeks and their results reflect that. They are going to come out and play their best footy against the Bombers. Essendon certainly deserve to be slight favourites, but with the Eagles’ forward line form and Matt Priddis playing some great footy, we are happy to find some values with the Eagles.
A few weeks ago you wouldn’t have thought Collingwood Magpies Vs. Brisbane Lions would be a big game, but after a few unexpected losses, this one is integral to the Magpies’ season. Both these teams are coming off disappointing losses. The Lions received a 105 points thrashing from Adelaide, while Collingwood lost by ten goals to West Coast. You would have to just think the Magpies really bounce back hard here and while the Lions should also bounce back and be competitive, the black and white should get the four points and continue their march towards securing a spot in the finals.
The other game on Saturday night is Adelaide Crows Vs. Richmond Tigers. This one is also interesting as both teams are still in contention for the finals, though Adelaide more so than the Tigers. Adelaide have won five of last eight at Adelaide Oval and Rory Sloane is in career best form. However, Richmond are undefeated since Round 15 and are just compounding on their confidence. You would think Richmond don’t consider themselves a real chance at making the finals, whereas Adelaide definitely think they are a legitimate chance to make the eight. Would be leaning towards Adelaide here, but on current form Richmond are a threat. Will consider Richmond plus the points.
Sunday’s first game is Nth Melbourne Kangaroos Vs. Western Bulldogs at Etihad. Although most would have the Kangaroos as a lock to make the eight, they actually need to be careful with so many teams from 7th – 11th looking to swoop in there. They just can’t lose games like this one. And we don’t think they will. The Kangaroos ten goal win over the Giants last week is not indicative of some of the poor football that they played. They should switch on for this one and really fire up. North have won the last three straight against the Doggies and expecting them to make it four.
Melbourne Demons Vs. GWS Giants on Sunday afternoon is actually a more interesting game than some would think. It’s just a really good opportunity to see where these two teams are at. The Giants played a really good quarter and a half of footy against the Roos last week and that’s the problem. They still aren’t mature enough to play a full game at a high level. It could actually be argued that when the Giants fire up and play their best, they are classier than the Demons. At the end of the day though, the Demons are more disciplined, better coached and can play games out. Expecting a tough game and a tough win from the Demons.
The final game of Round 21 is the massive Fremantle Dockers Vs. Hawthorn Hawks. It’s a Grand Final rematch. It’s 4th on the ladder vs. 1st. The Hawks are really looking like they are back to their best at the moment, while the Dockers have also improved after a midseason slump. The Dockers haven’t been able to score more than 80 against the Hawks in five games and average closer to 65. You just cant win a game scoring like that. Think this game could play out a similar way, with the Hawks scoring their usual 100+ and the Dockers hitting that 70-80 point mark. The only solace Fremantle can take is that it’s at home and that Jarryd Roughhead is out for the week. Really tough game to bet. Leaning towards the extra value with the Hawks being slight underdogs. Will watch with interest.
Round 21 Best Betting Tips
Geelong Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) *** - $2.30 at Ladbrokes
Port Adelaide at the line (-17.5) * - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
West Coast at the line (+9.5) * - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Melbourne Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) * - $2.15 at Ladbrokes
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Round 21 Tipping Advice
Last week was another round of picking seven winners. Too many sevens this year and not enough nines! Gonna see if we can change that in Round 21. Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we would pick in a tipping competition at the local pub or in the work place.
Geelong (Carlton)
Sydney (St Kilda)
Port Adelaide (Gold Coast)
West Coast (Essendon)
Collingwood (Brisbane)
Adelaide (Richmond)
Nth Melbourne (Bulldogs)
Melbourne (GWS)
Hawthorn (Fremantle)
Score last round: 7
Total score: 121
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
