We are drawing ever-closer to September as we are about to begin Round 20 of the 2014 AFL season. We had one of our best AFL betting weekends in Round 19 and hope to continue that success this weekend and for the rest of the season. Be sure to read on and check out our 2014 AFL Round 20 preview, betting tips and tipping advice.
2014 AFL Round 20 Preview
Round 20 kicks off with on Friday night with a big MCG crowd-pleasing Richmond Tigers Vs. Essendon Bombers. If this game was taking place just a few weeks ago you would have given the Bombers a sure-fire win and been on with it. But not necessarily anymore as the Tigers are up and about, in season best form with five consecutive wins. Technically, no matter how likely, they can still make the finals. If that is ever to happen they need to win this. Only problem is that Essendon are already in the eight and will be firing up to win games like this and stay in there. Essendon have won four of their last five against Richmond, with all of those games at the MCG. The last time they met was Round 11 of this year and the Dons won by 50 points. There is no way to think this game will blow out like that. In fact, It’s likely to be very competitive. The Tigers will find it tough to win, but thinking they will keep it within a few goals.
The first game on Saturday is the very one-sided affair of GWS Giants Vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos. Well, at least it should be one-sided. There is absolutely no reason to think the Kangaroos won’t easily take care of the Giants. It’s that time of year when the Kangaroos shouldn’t take their foot off the accelerator. The line of 40 points is a bit high, but right around where we think this game is at.
A far more interesting game is Carlton Blues Vs. Gold Coast Suns. Like Friday night’s game, this is another one where a few weeks ago you would have known who was going to win. But since then Carlton has been playing good footy and now this game looks just about as tough as any of the games this weekend. Sitting at ninth, the Suns need to win every game to keep themselves in with a chance to get in the eight. They still don’t have their general Gary Ablett, but they did score their first-ever victory without him last week, which they will take some confidence from. However, that win was against the Saints and this a rejouvinated Blues outfit. Mick Malthouse will be looking to see his team continue to finish the year strong and I really think the Suns will find this one hard. The last time the Blues met the Suns they thrashed them. That won’t happen again but we are giving this one to the Blues, especially since they are coming off a nine day break.
Saturday afternoon sees the MCG play host to Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Melbourne Demons. This is the Hawks last “easy” game of the year as the next three rounds sees them face Geelong, Fremantle and Collingwood. This is the sort of game that some would argue the Hawks won’t give 100% for, but I would argue the opposite. Percentage is vital for the top of the ladder position and the Hawks can’t afford to mess with their groove ahead of those tough games. Expecting the Hawks to come out firing and easily take care of the Demons.
The first of two games on Saturday evening is Port Adelaide Power Vs. Sydney Swans. It’s at Adelaide Oval and has all the makings of a massive game. Well, that’s if the Power show up. The Swans are still vying for the top spot on the ladder, while the Power are looking to get back into the four after slipping to fifth following five weeks of football which saw just one win. It’s simple, if the Power can’t get up for this game at their home ground, then they have no chance in September. The last times these two met the Swans won in a thrilling four-point ballgame. Considering the Power have averaged just 76 points in the last five games, it’s hard to imagine them keeping it that close, but they simply need to be competitive. That low scoring average is not indicative of a side that gets it inside 50 as often as the Power do. On current form, you would have to think the Swans at a somewhat small three goal line is the play.
The other game on Saturday evening is also a big one – Geelong Cats Vs. Fremantle Dockers. The Cats have probably exceeded expectations in 2014, sitting pretty at third and playing some great football. The Dockers are also playing great football, back to near their best after a shaky middle part of the season. Both teams will be looking to everything they can to stay in the top four, so this should be a tough battle. It’s down at Simonds Stadium, which is tough for the Dockers, but Fremantle to seem to match up well against the Cats, especially in recent times as the Dockers have won four of the last five. The Dockers knocked Geelong out of the finals last year and there seems to be a legitimate rivalry between these two clubs. Steve Johnson was meant to be out reported for one week, but he managed to beat the tribunal and will line up here. Usually Ryan Crowley goes to Steven Johnson and beats him, but we will see if that’s the case again this weekend. This game is one of those ‘sit back and enjoy it’ games. You would have to give Geelong the edge, but this is a really tough to bet on.
After the excitement of the Saturday night games, Sunday kicks off with a somewhat less riveting Brisbane Lions Vs. Adelaide Crows clash. There is still plenty to play for in the Adelaide camp as they slipped to tenth last week after a bad loss to the Eagles. They need to win every game from here on to give themselves a fighting chance at making the eight. Expecting the Crows to come out firing and plug the gaping holes of their game setup against West Coast last week. Only problem is they have an improved Brisbane side to contend with. The last times these two met it was at the Gabba, like this game, and the Crows won by 19 points. This game should see a similar result.
St Kilda Saints Vs. Western Bulldogs is a game for the fans of these teams. Both armies should head out to Etihad thinking they have a legitimate chance of getting a win. Saints fans have two reasons to get to the game – this is their last home game, so it’s a farewell of sorts to club great Lenny Hayes. They will certainly be fired up, but will have to contend with some of the best young players in the league, including Jackson Macrae, Tom Liberatore and Marcus Bontempelli. The Saints generally have a good record against the Bulldogs, but their last encounter was won by the red, white and blue. The Bulldogs are four-goal favourites, and probably deserve to be against the bottom-of-the-ladder Saints, but wouldn’t be surprised if this one was a much closer affair.
The final game for Round 20 is Collingwood Magpies Vs. West Coast Eagles. This is a big game. The Magpies are coming off a solid victory last week to keep the finals chances alive, while the Eagles were inspirational against the Crows when we had all ridden them off. Plenty of the footy world would love the Eagles to win and make it hard for Collingwood to make the eight, but it’s hard to imagine that will be the case. Collingwood would have taken huge confidence out of last week’s win and with Luke Ball and Clinton Young back in, it’s going to be tough for the Eagles to come up against. It’s at Patersons Staidum, which is in the Eagles favour, but we give the slight edge to Collingwood.
Round 20 Best Betting Tips
Essendon Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.25 at Ladbrokes ***
Carlton Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.30 at Ladbrokes **
Sydney at the line (-16.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes *
Adelaide Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.20 at Ladbrokes **
Western Bulldogs Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.20 at Ladbrokes *
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Multi of the Week
Essendon 1-39 / Carlton 1-39 / Adelaide 1-39 - $11.38 *
Before You Bet Round 20 Tipping Advice
We managed to get eight tips last week, just faltering on the Adelaide loss. Looking to finish off the year strong with more weeks of eight or nine tips! Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we would pick in a tipping competition at the local pub or in the work place.
Essendon (Tigers)
North Melbourne (GWS)
Carlton (Gold Coast)
Hawks (Melbourne)
Sydney (Port Adelaide)
Geelong (Fremantle)
Adelaide (Brisbane)
Bulldogs (Saints)
Collingwood (West Coast)
Score last round: 8
Total score: 114
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
